This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on September 20, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for September 20 as soon as datapoint for September 21 become available. This market may not resolve until the September 21 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for September 20 is available by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to September 20. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Kamala Harris winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Harris 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.
Dropped back to 58 from 60 today I see. Interesting ;)
hi
Hype about Harris crushing trump in that debate should dissipate within a couple days. I think it's still a 50/50 for the race, 538 should reflect that again shortly (decent chance by 9/20). Also, this is flawed by Nate Silver, but ... [link removed] (definitely not biased here ofc ;)
Now at 59!
it's at 56 right now
Yes and by then it will be 60+