This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the margin of victory for the Democratic-backed "Yes" position in the 2025 California referendum on Proposition 50. This market will resolve to "Proposition 50" if the margin of victory in the California referendum is greater than in the New York City Mayor election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the mayoral election and between the “Yes” and “No” vote shares in the referendum. If the Democratic candidate and the “Yes” position fail to win, this market will resolve to the contest in which they lost by the smaller margin. If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the California Secretary of State).
Like a phoenix, Thonker has risen from the ashes
lmao jesus christ i wish i noticed this dumb ass rule
congartz thonker!
It’s absolutely glorious to see @aenews2 lost tens of thousands of dollars on this market. That lying twink and thief finally got what he deserved!
twink?
This one of the craziest resolutions I've ever seen lmao
ever since i was a child i loved reading
I agree with the resolution based on the rules, just shocked that an oversight like this could go overlooked by everyone for so long.
Yeah nearly an entire month 🗿
Can't believe I lost 90K on retarded rules
We got rules cucked. First time in history margin of victory means the difference between the guy who got 1st and the guy who got 3rd.
90k? but ur position is worth 20k?
Yes, I lost 90K. Multiple accounts.
All hail Thonker, the greatest man to ever do it
ohh sorry to hear that brother
sorry to hear man :(
My comment changed it all lol
Congrats thonker
thanks :) (this is my alt, main is comment banned for some reason)
If you check my main, I actually bought shares there (and here) at bond-like prices because it would've been a clear P50 win, if the rules were like everyone (without reading, including me initially!) thought they were. P50 polled near-unanimously for/against on both parties, so it was obvious that the margin would be higher than the Mamdani/Cuomo margin. The rules here were bad but crystal clear.
did the rules change or something? it was 6% all day or did no one read?
reading is hard
lol i really had no money here i came late. thought i could get a baby baby flip for fun just cuz, whoops. but GOOOOD find for those who bought at 6c for hours lol
No need for clarification; rules are abundantly clear
Rules don't cover what would happen in the case of no Republican being on the ballot which was a real possibility. Leaves some definite wiggle room for amending them.
Looks like Silwa was on the ballot
Trump endorsed Cuomo, so he should be considered the one who got the most Republican votes.
It’s very clear that Klutzy is right. Except there is nothing to “consider” - it says “difference in percentage points of Democratic and Republican vote shares”, referring to how many Democrats voted versus how many Republicans voted… it does not say “vote share of the Democrat candidate versus the Republican CANDIDATE”
“ The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting” - no credible reporter will say Mamdani won with a larger margin than prop 50
The spirit of this market is to resolve prop 50
Additional context box incoming
the spirit is mamdani. rules are too clear to ignore here. GGs whoever read rules here
Good dispute potential, rules say Democratic vs Republican vote margin. Cuomo is running I Sliwa is the Republican
They literally just copied and pasted “democrat vs republican” from other races, while “margin of victory” has 100% clear meaning to be how much the candidate won the election by. “Victory” was not over Sliwa. Victory was winning over his closest competitor who was endorsed by Republicans