Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Il est tristoune le marche du lecornu out par rapport a octobre/novembre dernier. Y'a quasi 0 volume la 🫤

Bye bye Lecornu

I doubt it, PS won’t vote the two motions de censure. So there wont be enough votes to kick him out.

Non confidence vote rejected.

In the coming hours, Lecornu will face two motions of censure. They will probably be rejected, but let’s keep our eyes open. [link removed]

awesome

Lecornu ne va jamais partir. jamais. Moi vivant, jamais.

le vote d'aujourd'hui est tout sauf une victoire pour le gouvernement etant donne l'attitude d'horizons et des lr. jamais un tel budget ne pourra etre vote

Frankenstein budget by right and left wing socialists. No validation to be expected from the gov. And yet any reasonable budget imposed top down would end in censor. No way out of the crisis imho

Lecornu's abrupt ouster as French PM by mid-2026 is sparking cabinet reshuffles that could either stabilize Macron's lame-duck era or plunge Paris into deeper coalition chaos.

Lecornu will not fall this year France need a budget before

(this hot mess is obviously far from being over, next question to answer is: what happens if the first part of the 2026 budget bill is rejected in first reading?)

Not if, when

The PS is putting most of the blame on the RN (and not on the government) for the failure of getting their tax measures passed. Good signal that in the short term, they are ok to still support Lecornu's government. They didn't threaten to vote a "motion de censure" today.

gg ez

Obviously it's now too late for the October 31th bet to work out, but the situation is still a hot mess at the moment. The tax proposals of the PS are getting discussed and put to a vote today. Olivier Faure met with Sebastien Lecornu today and declared thereafter that: "the meeting didn't result in any progress or agreement". On one side, I don't necessarly sense a strong willingness from the PS to take down the government. Plus general elections in December would less than ideal for various reasons. But on the other side, the PS kind of put themselves in an inextricable situation. They simply don't hold enough power to force the National Assembly and the Senate to adopt a budget that they claim would be "acceptable" according to them.

lmaoooooooooooooo

Superbe analyse ! C'est tellement vrai !

It's almost over for the 31st of October deadline. A "motion de censure" is voted at least 48 hours after being asked for. So if no "motion de censure" today, October 31 is a done deal.

I agree that it is almost over for the 31st of October deadline. But that being said, if Lecornu considers that he is politically doomed, he might not wait a formal vote to resign. Even more since yesterday, it has become fairly obvious that the budget that will end up being passed is not the one currently discussed and amended in the National Assembly. So the question here: is the PS really fine with that?

Lecornu's government spokeperson announced today they will oppose "zucman light" wealth tax proposal (which is a proposal from the PS). The PS wanted some form of government support on that measure. Let's see now if it's really a dealbreaker...

Next year

No, next year it will be useless, if budget pass, the next time will be in 2026 and it's just before presidential election.

Olivier Faure claims that he is not bluffing (obviously) but he didn't really rev up his threats today. He kind of pushed back his ultimatum deadline actually: "We will know by the end of next week if there is going to be a dissolution or not" & "new elections could take place in November" (his words on LCI). He wants a super wealth tax to get voted, which would allegedly generate even more tax revenue than the old version (the ISF). I have a hard times seeing this assembly agreeing on that. But who knows... For $[link removed] a share, it is worth the gamble imo.

Faure joue un jeu dangereux, si il vote la dissolution c'est potentiellement un PM du RN. Son chantage est un coup de bluff a mon avis (budget en fin d'annee obligatoire)

Il est tout a fait realiste de considerer qu'il cherche simplement a negocier et qu'il se contente d'un entre-deux sur le sujet. Un aspect que je factorise dans mon analyse neanmoins est que je pense qu'il soit peu probable qu'a la fin des fins de ce processus legislatif, le budget qui passera soit vraiment PS-compatible/approved. Vouloir ne pas passer pour un con a l'arrivee en mettant des a present un terme a cette "experience politique" tres incertaine aurait sa logique.

Pour l'heure, le PS maintient sa pression: Boris Vallaud a affirme sur RTL que "tout etait possible" concernant une censure cette semaine du gouvernement.

Nothing will happen

FRANCE SOCIALISTS THREATEN TO OUST GOVERNMENT AMID FRAUGHT BUDGET TALKS

FRANCE SOCIALISTS THREATEN MY POLYMARKET ACCOUNT