Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

Congratulations Canada, you are the new province of India

If you have a sense of a brain and want to use it VOTE CONSVERTIVE

The Liberals now have a "working majority" with the speaker of the House breaking any ties that might happen to keep the government alive. Won't matter much in the next few days as they get their formal majority - but worth noting.

Nice win Etak.

worse-scenario what is your theory

GG

Liberals will get majority

They are calling the by-elections today. They need to win Terrebonne before Nate Erskine-Smith leaves.

The Liberal leadership would obviously be in contact with Nate Erskine-Smith. I assume they would have waited to call the by-elections until after he left if he was planning on leaving any time soon

He’s actually running a campain to get elected in provincial election.

I accept my losses if they get a majority, but thinking that he will not leave soon is science fiction.

I know, but presumably they would have asked him, "hey we're going to call a few by-elections next month, if you're planning on resigning in the next few weeks can you let us know so we can hold the Beaches-East York election at the same time?" The fact that they called the three by-elections without waiting for him suggests he's not planning on resigning before April 13

You’re right. He could have waited until he was certain about Nate in order to have four by-elections. But he’s calling them today so that the vote falls on the Monday after the party convention in Montreal, to boost the chances in Terrebonne. There’s also the possibility that Nate leaves the caucus but keeps his seat, like Pablo Rodriguez did last year.

So, when does the Terrebonne by-election start?

Carney hasn't announced a date but it must be held before August

We talk about this on our podcast, but I don't see it happening - also if new general election is called that would resolve to "No" as house of commons dissolves before the new leader (per the rules).

1 mp

They will 100% win two of the three by-elections (plus Beaches East York if Erskine-Smith leaves). That means they get a majority if they win Terrebonne, or if they get another floor crosser. Both are very realistic possibilities

Right, but will the by-elections will be before June 30?

They have no incentive to wait now that they're riding high in the polls and the by-elections could give them a majority. They were probably waiting for the Court's Terrebonne decision before going. Only reason to wait now would be if they are planning a spring general election or have more potential floor-crossers up their sleeve, which would reduce the pressure on the Terrebonne election

I think it’s not a matter of incentives, but rather logistics. There will eventually be a general election, so instead of holding by-elections and spending money, they might as well call the general election. We also have to take into account the upcoming resignations of Nate Erskine-Smith and Jonathan Wilkinson, and possibly other MPs as well. But your point is valid.

Seriously, what justifies the current price of Yes?

an election call and liberals winning 172+ seats

"This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. "

That’s a good argument for NO

You just confirmed that it is mispriced. I’ll buy more. Thanks!

only 1 MP has to cross the floor to Liberals. Not the election being called.

Not true, 4 MP

Oh 5, I forgot to count Nate Erkine Smith

Now Carney is going to 'stumble' into a majority by June 30 without Canadians actually voting for one.

“There’ll be a few by-elections coming up, and we’ll run great candidates, and the people in those ridings will decide who they want to send to Parliament,” - Mark Carney

Odds doubled in a month. What’s changed? Can’t keep going at this rate

What do you mean what's changed? Time has passed. Less time = less chance, obvs the odds of no are going to increase. But besides that Lori Idlout looked like she was going to defect to the Liberals around Christmas but seems to have decided not to for the moment

Chrystia Freeland stepped down on Friday rather than waiting until next July. The date for the by-elections is currently unknown. Consequently, Carney now needs two more floor-crossers instead of just one. There is also an increasing number of articles denouncing the Liberals' strategy of recruiting from other parties, calling the practice anti-democratic. Furthermore, during an interview in France last week, Carney stated that there will be several by-elections, suggesting that there could be more departures following Freeland's.

No is still underpriced, considering also the fact that there's 13 % chance of an election before June 30 and this market will resolves to No if parlement is dissolved.

month 1 of 6 down and it going disproportionately 70% to 40%

Also what would be the timeline on Freeland's Bi-Election is she has to step-down? I feel like it should happen by June but otherwise it means another seat that the Liberals need to find for the 172

The resolution criteria says "the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part". With the floor crossers, do they count as part of the aliance as it wouldn't be until next election where they run as Liberal?

On house of commons website, you can see the political affiliation of each deputy. Last time, they were really quick to change the party affiliation.

What a show...all of this seems very staged to me. Obviously the crooked Liberals are gunning for a war in Europe which could morph into a 3rd world war. The are most likely paying off the last crooked MP they can find to ensure their stranglehold on power which is not hard to find in Politics. Once they have a majority and start a major conflict they could then hold onto power for an indefinite amount of time

The political landscape is too polarized. No major party is strong enough to get a majority right now. The best they can hope for is another minority deal, maybe even with the Greens. Another minority government is the safest bet.

This is because they had another floor-crosser yesterday, and they need only one more floor-crosser to have a majority government.