A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between December 2 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Is it true that there are no earthquakes?
[link removed].uk/news/world/australasia/[link removed]
"Magnitude 7.4 earthquake strikes near Vanuatu capital" Someone please put their thumb on Richter scale.
Come on people. We all know that there always are big quakes at the end of the year.
Long live peace
The destructive power is comparable to a tsunami
A magnitude 8 earthquake is unlikely to occur
Level 8, incredible
in the last 124 years, 63 megaquake.
So, it's gone from 1 every 2 years to 1 every year.
in the last 24 years, just 17 Megaquake occurred. [link removed]
the wikipedia list isn't comprehensive lol
[link removed].gov/hazel/view/hazards/earthquake/event-data?minEqMagnitude=8
25 megaquakes in the last 24 years.
ohh ok
Statistically it's about 8% chance so the market's already at fair price.
where did you get 8%??
one quake above 8 magnitude on average. 8,33% chance per calendar month
per year on average.
bro, u r looking at the wrong data, or your calculations are very wrong.
dude. you're looking at Wikipedia. [link removed].gov/hazel/view/hazards/earthquake/event-data?minEqMagnitude=8