PoliticsMarkets
NATO dissolves before 2027?
$108,960 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Yes$109K Vol.4%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
if nato dissolves there will be a world war either way lol, free money on no
The fact that this is even serious discussion. This would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. But I'm not betting yet. I'd say 30-50% chance
Overton window
I know what the Overton window is, but can you elaborate on your comment?
He is implying the overton window has shifted, thereby bringing previously unthinkable things into the discussion
Exactly. That was my point
if you think the chance is 30-50% u ought to buy some shares
yes, of course.
All NATO countries are pinning their hopes on the Democratic Party as the ruling party in the next election.
According to some recent political debates I have listened to recently, not necessarily. They have to consider who could win in 2032... 2036... so on. Stability at this point is no longer guaranteed, which is what you need for a long-term partnership. This factor is no longer present
Yes, this bet is undervalued. If US takes Greenland then this is going to happen for sure. US taking greenland and this bet should have similar odds, which they havent.
Yes, unfortunately.