GeopoliticsMarkets
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3117%
June 304%
December 31, 2025<1%
March 31<1%
$2,509,872 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31$318K Vol.17%
1%
June 30$1M Vol.4%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in Latvian airspace on Monday, according to Latvia’s military, with air alerts subsequently lifted.
Does this affect your Polymarket position? Yes, this is the strongest market-relevant incident so far. It is much stronger than Galați, Constanța, Munich, or the French tanker case
so if "unknown men in green uniforms" will enter Estonia and engage with Estonian army, BUT Russia will not claim responsibility for it... will it qualify or not?
now the whole world can see how karma and the law of boomerang work
This summer, Russia will carry out sabotage operations against the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Finland.
бредятина полнейшая
Russian TV propaganda is preparing the population for war with NATO. The narrative is that NATO countries are already part of the conflict because they produce weapons for Ukraine. Lately, there has been much more of this kind of propaganda than before. I expect at least an ultimatum from Putin to NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine.
all bark no bite
It's not really propaganda though.
Estonian fighter shot down a UAV today. Was it Russian? If it was then this should be resolved as YES.
nah if it wasn't armed that doesn't seem to count
RUSSIA'S RYABKOV: RISKS OF DIRECT RUSSIA - NATO CLASH ARE INCREASING - TASS
Estonia has shot down a UAV that entered its territory for the first time, according to the Ministry of Defense.
Russia even stuck in Mala Tokmachka
This is true, Putin cannot win on the battlefield now, but Ukraine can only resist with EU support. Putin can attack EU to force they to stop support of Ukraine. EU is defenseless against Shahed attacks on infrastructure.
Why dump? Possibility of military clash is really low. Russia stuck in Ukraine,
If its YES i probably dont need money
The wallet that called the last black swan event is currently loading up on this move.
which wallet? what black swan?
This isn't a black swan event because NATO vs Russia military clash is a known unknown, rather than an unknown unknown. A black swan is something that isn't expected at all.
Top Yes holder is a mouthbreather... look at his rtard bets...he is just a rich gambler
I'm truly sorry to break it to you all
Someoone please add "December 31, 2026" and "March 31, 2027" with rewards. These are 100% when market prices in 20-30%.
Boguht again. YES! Its coming to Europe this winter.
I live in Galati, Romania, about 15 km from the area where 4,000 tons of LPG just caught fire, right next to an active conflict zone. Being this close, the situation feels extremely tense and unpredictable. From my perspective on the ground, things look like they could escalate at any moment. That’s why I’m positioned on Yes until December 31.
A full NATO and Russia clash feels unlikely, but with rising tensions, people keep speculating about a flashpoint that could ignite conflict sooner than anyone expects.
bugged
if yes then ww3, i bet on peace, optimism makes money
Makes money while u are down 71k is insane cope
What about the drones above airfields and military bases? When these Russian drones are shot down, will that qualify as a yes?
read the rules (no)
How would a false flag where everyone believes Russia attacked occurred be rated?
would it even matter anymore. A lost bet would be the smallest of your problems.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31 · Yes
Amount
$
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