On September 8, François Bayrou was ousted as French PM after losing his confidence vote. After being appointed, the new Prime Minister may voluntarily ask for a vote of confidence. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next French confidence vote passes between September 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no vote is called by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Et merde
peu probable qu'en plus un vote de confiance soit demande
This market is profitable because degens don't understand it. For a vote of confidence to pass, a vote of confidence must be first requested. Voluntarily. By the prime minister. He is already struggling to not be censored, it is unthinkable he would ask for a vote or confidence (and even more unthinkable it would pass). Do what you want with that information.
The parlement can also call a "motion de censure", which leads to a confidence vote
Yes this is what i ment, they vote for a vote to take place
But a "motion de censure" is not a "vote de confiance", it has very different rules (absolute majority vs relative majority, which change everything)
at what volume does one need to be worried about whales calling vote on their side?
Time to bet yes I see Macron nominates Retailleau and no election called
Do you even understand this market? Good luck.
I see Macron chosing a prime minister without any election, a right wing one, a majority at the parliament with the right wings support and a vote of confidence
You'd be right except it would NEVER be retailleau.
Yes, same scenario but with a leftist wing prime minister. They can gather around attal/faure/tondelier
kof kof kof kof
Why would he? He won't.
Is 49.3 vote considered as "confidence vote"?
No confidence vote is 49.1