This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Putin out as president of Russia - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Trump visits Russia - Putin meets Zelensky - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU2.png
Look at the time 🧐🧐
Oh would you look at the time
It will swing back (if you know anything about news cycles you will know this) before end of year. Won't go to 100% unless the criteria is met but big swing back is imminent, odds are great right now (just saying) for no. Trump has mentioned like 47 times that he wants it to be achieved before the new year, and I feel based on analysing over 100 speeches / talks given by him that this is in his top 3 priorities to get done before January 20th 2026 (1 year anniversary of inauguration). Personally I don't think no will win, but I do think it will trace back to like 60-70% (and then either go back down or to 100% depending on final outcome) as there are more forces trying to force a yes to ending the war than the variables that are redlines for no. There are many things that make the war NOT ending very likely, but there are MORE things that make the war VERY LIKELY to end probable. I just know that no odds right now are a guaranteed scalp if you're not holding to 100%. 12 cents is insanely low for this market, look at the graph and spend your pocket money likely.
31st Dec 2025 as first order deadline, 20th Jan 2026 as second (imo)
wisely*
[link removed] Putin not sounding like a peace deal, ceasefire, or meeting is imminent.
It feels like Nothing Ever Happens Russia Edition nails that quiet tension vibe where everything looks normal on the surface but nothing really is.
Russia keeps moving quietly while the world watches but nothing really changes on the surface and the same patterns keep repeating without any big surprises.
Russia's advance stalls, nothing ever happens in Donbas winter.
Strange odds. Related markets are trading at a higher price.
I dont get it either. I guess the markets are highly correlated but just looking at the other market odds we have NO odds for: (Z meet Putin 88%)*(Trump visit 91%)*(Ceasfire 89%)*(Putin out 96%)*(Invade NATO 95%) = 65% ... Meaning 35% for at least one of these five event happening. Oh well
I mean i guess Z meeting Putin is a prerequesit for a ceasefire and then putin meeting trump or z is probaly also strongly correleated. Taking these two events out it seems pretty resonable. This also a very thin market
I agree, but you cannot take them out completely.. But my calculation is simplified for sure.
The reason ceasefire is at 89 or Putin out at 96 is not because that is the real probability of the event. It is because there are many better bond markets out there like nyc mayor. No one wants to buy Putin out at 96 and wait until the eoy to earn 4 percent. Furthermore, as the other person replied to you, these things aren’t independent.
not really imo
Putin the puppet master is going to handle this new Trum 180 like a pro. Some praising, some disinformation, some pompous useless meeting somewhere and he will be a terrific guy once again in no time.
Haha spot on