This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period ending by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31-over-50 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Holy smokes this is a market
next level degenerate gambling
The market is basically saying the regime is terminal, but the IRGC still has enough bullets to last through February
odds still cute [link removed] !!!
Cool experiment on derivatives. Unlocks the possibility of leveraged positions and much more.
lmfao wtf is this market, bet on other bet
no no no
what happened [link removed] ???
The dude is in an underground bunker guys
Like Nasrallah was?
how did this work out for you
Guys use the brain. In case of a US strike two things will happen. 1) US smoked Khamenei and Yes wins. 2) Everybody thinks US smoked Khamenei or will do it and Yes wins. Therefore no is only if there is no strike before friday meaning that 8 cent is extremely undervalued. Summed up: BUY YES AND HODL
They may strike military facilities. There is no guarantee it would be framed as exactly targeting Khamenei. Most probably that would be some limited strikes framed as warning to the regime
Why make this one so impossible? The "odds over 20%" market should have expired on the 16th, and the "odds over 50%" market should have ended on the 31st... They want you to go over the river and through the woods to make a prediction over here, lol. Next time.
-75k
nice short squeeze
rip in peace
never betting the same side as alex parker again
sike nvm actually
Lol it's already on 30c prior to strikes...which could easily include decapitation strikes and are almost guaranteed to enormously destabilise the regime even further, coin flip odds of big boss mullah still being around end of the month seems very likely in that aftermath
can we get a derivative of this market that this market spikes to 50%?
next we bet on win % of traders and here we go the cds of polymarket
Derivatives with no multiplier…
What you think ?
Actually it's a great market, basically a derivative of a biggest bet. Great idea, got hyped up by the community too