This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 2-hour period between 12:00 PM and 1:59 PM ET on January 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at the relevant two-hour window. This will display the two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com
No hype and news for 30 next hours gives me x2? I'm in!
x2? you mean +5%
he in since 47
respect
Chill don't panic
An odds market on an odds market? WTF
derivatives like in the stock market
Man that's not how derivatives work though
It literally is lmao
Oh yeah? Which pricing model is used here? Black-Scholes? Heston?
Yomomston
meta odds
You do know derivatives existed before Black Scholes existed?
the VIX is derived from SPX option prices and there are options on the VIX so yes, there are options on stuff based on options in the real stock market
And they were plagued by frequent mispricing and huge risk before that
Indeed! Just like the derivatives on this platform! Admit Im the king and you were wrong!
Pleas help a Nigerian my church is been bombed just donate please
Do you sleep in your church?
Pleas in Nigeria my church is been bombed I need donation for it pleas to contribute to my church help a Nigerian
Yeah we need a derivative market for this market asap
when are we dropping the "Odds of odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday over 80% on Friday?" market
Yes please 😂
is this what they call leverage
OBV win
Let’s fucking bet on this
punter, what's your take on this market?
It’s literally above 20 rn 🤣
Fibonacci of prediction markets
Each day we are one step closer to complete market and one step further from God
Can we have a market to predict the odds of this market?