Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

Calin Georgescu numele iubit... de un popor curat smerit...

Lasă că-l pun serviciile pe Tomac și ieșim bine

Stenograme din ședința PNL "Ilie Bolojan a deschis ședința cu o propunerea ca PNL să nu susțină guvernul Tomac în Parlament"..complicata treaba..

Există 3 variante posibile: 1. Fie Nicușor Dan este în blat cu PSD-ul, caz în care trece Tomac și vom avea un guvern Cioloș 2.0. (destul de nasol) 2. Cade Tomac, după care va fi desemnat un alt premier, care va fi și el respins de Parlament, iar astfel vom ajunge la alegeri anticipate. 3. Nicușor Dan se va preface că negociază, va trage de timp și vom sta mult și bine cu Bolojan.

spoiler: 3

Sau propunerea 2 este de fapt miza - guvern condus direct sau indirect de Bolojan. Care trece si cu sprijinul PSD datorita amenințărilor cu anticipatele

Nu știu dacă pentru PSD și AUR va fi mai acceptabilă opțiunea de a rămâne Bolojan sau de a avea alegeri anticipate. Acum nu știu, dar cred că, indiferent care ar fi a doua propunere, dacă nu este un premier favorabil PSD-ului, atunci cred că mai degrabă se va merge pe varianta alegerilor anticipate.

AUR nu va vota nimic - ei castiga cel mai mult daca apar anticipate. PSD va pierde cel mai mult - parlamentarii vor tine cu dintii de scaune si vor vota orice la a doua propunere. Nu as pune PSD si AUR impreuna in privinta asta.

Avem sanse sa iasa rezultatul inainte de 30?

Poti sa vinzi daca vrei no risk. In mod cert, daca pica Tomac e gata

Am lichiditate foarte mica, scot sub 50% si nu imi convine

Eu am facut un take profit pe 2000k bucati ca sa stau linistit si merg cu restul pana la executare.

Vrei sa iti pun eu order la 50%?

Pai si cu cat as iesi?

Cu cat vreu tu, ideea e ca daca tomac ia vot vineri negativ sau luni, iar nicusor propune marti pe altcineva, e timp de guvern.

Adica putem pierde pariul nu?

Daca vand e cineva care sa cumpere ca sa nu pierd din profit?

satalana

vrea sa te arda nene. esti gasca?

la orice pariu exista un risc, momentan eu nu ma grabesc. Dupa ce pica tomac o sa cumpar.

If the current government proposal fails to garner support then the June 30 no WILL spike to 90c territory.

bingo

Da ma castigati daca pica tolomacu

Gg, am luat la 8c

gg! Eu la 0.8 :)

pica tomac si pana la toamna mai stam cu USR si bolo la guvernare sa mai curete din sobolani

Tomac e de sacrificiu

sau probabil ca nu

nu pari prea convins cu 1.4K

Scenariul meu e ca prima propunere de guvern va pica. La a doua propunere Nicusor va veni cu cineva din coalitia PNL-USR. Si va ameninta cu anticipate daca nu e votat. PSDul are cea mai mare scadere in intentia de vot - vor pierde cele mai multe scaune in caz de anticipate. Si vor vota orice sa le pastreze.

Nu sunt prea convins ca o sa fie investit in luna iunie

Sau sau sau, tomac e si omul psd, practic sclavul lor, grindeanu vorbeste cu baietii de la pace si udmr sa sustina guvernul, mai face rost si tomac de niste voturi din usr/pnl si aia e

PSD are 130 voturi in camera reunita. Sunt necesare 233 ca se fie investit guvernul. Foarte greu sa stranga 100 de voturi. PACE are 12... AUR clar nu vor vota pentru ca isi doresc anticipate. UDMR a mentionat ca nu va sustine un guvern tehnocrat sau PSD. Din PNL sau USR cine va vota e clar ca nu se aliniaza cu strategia generala si se auto-exclud din partid. Vedem saptamana viitoare cum arata lucrurile dar la momentul asta cel mai plauzibil e ca propunerea actuala nu o sa intruneasca numarul minim de voturi.

pace sos neafiiati minoritati udmr, astia o sa voteze.

Astia sunt 340 TOTI. Ma indoiesc ca vor vota toti cu propunerea PSD-ului. Dar cum am zis - vom vedea curand.

A PM without real chance is being proposed. He will have 2 weeks to negociate parliament support. Most likely it will fail. Second proposal will also take long time to decide (the president could ask for snap elections if the second time the government is not voted).

It wont fail

We’ll see soon enough

In the coming days the political agenda (assuming one still exists) will likely be dominated by the events that took place in Galati. For Nicusor Dan, it will become increasingly difficult to keep orbiting the PSD, especially considering that it was precisely the PSD that referred the Safe program to the Constitutional Court.

More negotiations, no majority in sight.. First naming will probably fail, then the named prime minister will have to find ministers etc.. might go well beyond 1 month for now until the swearing

PSD + AUR have formed a unofficial coalition. this will become official in the coming weeks and a new goverment will be born!

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So buy yes for june 30!

It’s hard to take seriously those who cannot distinguish between an interim government and an outgoing government

ok you have convinced me , im taking your money.

he will probably be the prime minister for a long long time

you are highly undecided on june 30 since you hold yes and no shares in the same time. the CCR has decided that a interim goverment cannot rule for more than 45 days. none of the parties (except me) want a romania without a goverment. so it will be settled in a reasonable timeframe and not for as you say: " long long time"!

there is no such a case as you describe it by CCR, it is undefined what happens after 45 days but the interim will continue.

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as long as i am out it doesnt matter who takes my place as a interim prime minister and for how long.

your post doesn't say anything related to any CCR decision. In the past it passed 45 days for different ministry

please read art 107 line 3 of the romanian constitution

a rotation to another prime minister means i will no longer be prime minister which will lead to a automatic YES solution to this bet!

In the past Boc staid as itermin for 70 days...

Please read carefully and don't spam fake news

because of the BOC abuses the romanian constitution was changed . its a long time since 2009. things dont work like that anymore.

read the constitution then speak of fake news. BOC days are long gone!

again, let me be crystal clear, after 45 days there will be a attempt to rotate the goverment so it stays interim, however any new prime minister that swaps with me will lead to a automatic solution of yes to this bet. but it wont even get to that because PSD will notice CCR soon about the goverment clown show! Any CCR decision against thia goverment will also lead to a yes resolve to this bet!

Negotiations will stall, every party wants something different. PSD will probably shift to AUR later on, but for now they haven't changed their rhetoric, ie. wanting a pro-West gov. (for foreigners, they're not pro-West, they're pro-your-Western-money-in-my-pocket).

[link removed] Watch closely what Grindeanu is actually saying. His stated goal “to have a government with full powers, voted in before the end of this parliamentary session” is framed as an aspiration, not a commitment. And that is the tell. The deadline he invokes is real: under the official parliamentary calendar, the current session closes in late June, with the summer recess stretching into early September. Grindeanu is therefore implicitly giving the talks a window of just a few weeks. But by anchoring the formation of a new government to that horizon, he is doing two things at the same time. On the surface, he is projecting urgency and a constructive stance: PSD wants a solution, PSD wants to move forward. In reality, the wording leaves a critical escape hatch wide open — what happens if late June comes and goes without a deal? He doesn’t say. And that omission is the whole point.

If the negotiations stall — and with PNL and USR having formally ruled out any new coalition with PSD, deadlock is the likeliest scenario — the outgoing Bolojan government would remain in office by default, and the summer recess would effectively freeze the picture for another two and a half months. Setting a deadline he is not actually prepared to enforce allows PSD to keep portraying the current caretaker arrangement as illegitimate, all while negotiating from a position of strength.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Negotiations are a nothing burger right now

Negotiations are going to last for a while.. it’s very hard to make a majority since the PNLUSR - PSD break up

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Under Article 103 of the Romanian Constitution, the formation of a new government follows three sequential steps: 1. The President of Romania designates a candidate for the office of Prime Minister, after consulting the party holding an absolute majority in Parliament or, failing that, the parties represented in Parliament. 2. The designated candidate has 10 days from designation to request a vote of confidence from Parliament on both the governing programme and the full list of ministers. 3. The programme and ministerial list are debated by the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in a joint sitting. Parliament grants confidence to the Government by the vote of a majority of all deputies and senators. The crucial point, often misunderstood by foreign observers, is that the presidential designation alone does not install a new Prime Minister, nor does it remove the incumbent one. The person named by the President is merely a prim-ministru desemnat (Prime Minister-designate): a candidate tasked with negotiating a parliamentary majority, drafting a programme, and assembling a cabinet within 10 days. He or she holds no executive powers, signs no government acts, and does not represent the executive abroad.

The outgoing Prime Minister and government remain fully in office, albeit with the reduced caretaker powers prescribed by Article 110 of the Constitution and Article 37 of the Administrative Code (handling current affairs only, no new policies, no emergency ordinances, no legislative initiatives), until a very specific moment: the swearing-in of the new government before the President, as provided by Article 104. Only then does the new Prime Minister actually take office, and only then does the outgoing one cease all functions. A telling illustration of how this works in practice is the case of Ludovic Orban, whose first government was brought down by a vote of no-confidence on 5 February 2020. The very next day, President Iohannis designated the same outgoing Prime Minister, Orban himself, to form a new government

The outgoing caretaker Prime Minister thus became simultaneously the Prime Minister-designate, tasked with seeking a fresh parliamentary majority. Following the Constitutional Court’s intervention and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, on 13 March Iohannis designated Orban once again, and on 14 March he obtained Parliament’s vote of investiture with 286 votes in favour. The cabinet, unchanged from the previous one, took the oath of office before the President on the same day. Throughout the entire period between the no-confidence vote in February and the swearing-in in March, Romania had no fully empowered government: only a caretaker executive operating under constitutional constraints. This means that even if the President were to designate a candidate tomorrow, the incumbent Prime Minister would continue to lead the caretaker government throughout the entire negotiation period, the drafting of the programme, the parliamentary debate, the confidence vote, the presidential decree of appointment, and finally the oath-taking ceremony. Each of these steps takes time: coalition negotiations in Romania routinely require weeks, the candidate has up to 10 days just to present the programme, and Parliament must then schedule and hold the joint session.

Realistically, completing all of these stages by 30 June is unlikely. The current political fragmentation, the need to rebuild a working majority after the fall of the previous cabinet, and the procedural timeframes built into the Constitution itself make a swearing-in by that date a tight, and probably unrealistic, deadline. Until then, the incumbent remains the constitutionally legitimate head of government, with all the limitations of caretaker status.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Yep, especially given the difficult coalition situation

[link removed] “the government that will come to power will have as its objective defining and submitting the 2027 budget to Parliament by the autumn,’ Nicusor Dan said.” Anyone who believes that Nicușor Dan will appoint a prime minister other than Ilie Bolojan to oversee the drafting of the 2027 budget law is mistaken, especially at a time when the main priority will be ensuring fiscal stability and passing the budget on schedule. The most likely scenario is the continuation of a minority government supported pragmatically in Parliament at least until the budget law is approved; afterwards, once this crucial step is completed, early elections cannot be ruled out.

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