This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
resolve the market already
Market rules clearly state by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for those that cannot read. Outcome proposed ahead of time?
Yeah, you're right, people messed up cause of the time zones probably. But it's gg for you anyway, sir
This might be the dumpest thing i have ever saw in my life
Someone disputed an obvious outcome, very strange.
Yes twice, thats 1500$ thats insane, i dont get it. Maybe someone is so crazy desperate and went all in
they guy who disputed could resolve the other markets too xD like ceasfire before july
He disputed because he thought that this market was resolved too early.
i respect your opinion, but it might be wrong
i wish it was true xD
lmao, dumbasses
What do you mean?
look at the time zone of the decision of this market in the rules.
I sold my NO shares and bought a NO bond on UMA.
You propose by buying bonds.
I proposed NO only one time.
People who bought NO shares can now propose NO on UMA by buying NO bonds and win more money.
The market is disputed on UMA and if more people buy the YES bond, then yes will win, regardless of the real outcome of the bet, which is NO of course.
Wtf, how is it disputed after 'no' is proposed?
People who still buy yes think that if a phone call is just exceptionally good, then Ukraine and Russia will delclare ceasefire without knowing anything else or having precondition for it
Yes feels way more likely than the 1% this market is currently pricing it
There are unlikely events, and there are impossible ones. It's important to distinguish between them.
Mr. distinguish needs to open up a history book. Minsk II agreement was conducted in a marathon session of 17 hours. Lib
You must be forgetting about Minsk 1, which took several attempts at stopping the war. Obviously the second signed agreement is gonna be easier to resolve once you get your foot in the door of signing agreements
The third signed agreement will be the *easiest* then...glad they got their foot in the door with the first two.
This conflict isn’t comparable. It wont be a Minsk agreement
Efforts to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are “already underway” - Trump
yes wins even if there is a 12 hour ceasefire while parties negotiate. way underpriced here.
Yeah if their actually was any direct talk. Trump states he does not even know if Putin wants peace
[link removed]
Hamas-israel spent months negotiating a ceasefire, there is no way it will be negotiated within 1 week
not all ceasefires are created equally
how do people think a ceasefire in a war as complex as this can happen in 10 days when actual negotiations haven't even started? Nobody has even any idea of when they will start, IF they will start. Even then, even if actual negotiations started tomorrow yes should still be at 5c at best
Any news about ceasefire?
TRUMP SAID HE WANTS TO GET IT DONE!!!
not by February 1, 2025
i can not buy it says onknown error
you guys are crazy on selling yes at 2 cents like you risk a fucking dollar to get less than 2 cents of profit 10 day before the dealdine ???
Trust me, it won't happen. But it is a win for me if it did anyway
Bro you put $600 on such an unlikely market? Even though the return would be 66x so you could risk significantly less and still make decent money if this went your way?
pretty much, I think the annoncement of an official phone call could like 5x the value of my position. I'm not betting it will be true in the end
Fair, I’ve flipped shares like this too but you can get burned easily. Keep in mind even if they had the phone call right now, people would be betting on this market thinking a peace treaty gets signed in the next 4 days which is near impossible so it prop ably wouldn’t pump that much compared to the other peace markets
people often forget that this is not like sports bets where you need to be right in the end. You can sell anytime. And if a phone call happen. Then the probability is wayyyyyy more than 1%.
A ceasefire is more like a pause than a full stop. We could really have Trump forcing a ceasefire and have Zelensky to go the the nego table
Because why would you talk seriously and at the same time, keep on killing people.
The probability of a ceasefire would be like 80%. The probability of a ceasefire in 3 days would still be 1%. Maybe 2%. Don’t forget Zelensky still has to remove his 2022 decree which forbids him from negotiating with putin. I would watch very closely for any news that he removes this decree as that would likely pump this market more than a phone call
Good point. but I think Trump will just force his way if he speaks with Putin and they agree on Ukraine staying out of nato against restitution of all part on ukraine (except crimee). Zelenski would have to put the decree up his ass and talk
you're right about the decree
Yes holders, last time to start to sell or you will enjoy quick profit lost. Today we have 17.01 and price is 4/96c 21.01 you will got max 3c 25.01 max 2c 29.01 max 1c and after you will have 0c
watch no go to 99c+ as soon as trump doesn't somehow get a ceasefire on his day 1
Gordon is planning to attend the inauguration.