This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Where’s next month market?
drone attacked estonia [link removed]
it was misdirected ukrainian drone
ukranian was in Lithuania, no information about impact in estonia
There was an official commentary from the Estonian authorities
++
LOL, Estonia complained to Russia about Ukrainian drones flying through its territory.
Gerbera drone with explosives fell in Lithuania. Will it count?
No
how do you know its gerbera?
were the dummy
what if ukraine launch drone and say its russian, but aftrer 1 month nato says its not russian?
thanks for the cheap fill last night
Any fallen drone in Romania or Poland will mark as YES?
"Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage."
[link removed]
what about today's drones that hit Romania?
yes sir
then how to report an outcome? why to wait till December 31?
What tabloid media are you reading, friend? You should change your news sources.
To be clear, the 9 September "attack" on Poland would have resolved this "yes" if it was in this time period? Even though all the drones were the dummy (unarmed) ones?
Clearly resolving to NO and this was easy money.
99.9%
Vanga predicted that Volodymyr would unite all the Slavic nations together..
Lol
Looks unlikely.