GeopoliticsMarkets
Russian strike on Poland by...?
June 30, 20263%
September 30<1%
December 31<1%
$1,968,636 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
June 30, 2026$120K Vol.3%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Unlikely in my opinion. Russia would take the Baltics and even Finland before Poland
bardziej zjebanego marketu nie mogliście wymysleć ?
I hope so
@JUP757
Poland is spending 90 billion in Defense. Insane.
It is possible that yes
Poland has very strong military
bulls*it
No chance. More likely to strike the 3 baltic countries before Poland lol
strike Poland, invade Baltics
Man, I totally agree with you. Put even more on YES please. 🙏
lol no
"We do not waste resources on the smallest objects testing our defenses. We focus on missiles and drones with warheads," Kukula added. [link removed]
RIP 2pac
really miss him
Could somebody explain me why damage of embassy building in Kyiv didn't count? Just air defence machine guns bullets likely are not able strike both the roof and ceiling. So the probability it was parts of Russian missile or drone is high
Debris of UA air defence supposedly
PM doesnt speak Ukranian and Polish. There are no a lot of wester media confirming this.
What is going on with this Market now? Is there any resolution for September 30?
This is resolved and clarified as PM scam.
And Fordow destruction was clarified as Yes, because of Grossi words on French radio, that he retracted the next day, but here it's not enough evidence 🤡
That is why they make shitty clarifications. So that it is not bonding in next case.
PM Jews have striked once again.
So bet on Yes only if Russia declare war on NATO. Because it looks like anything else doesnt count.
Not sure, we need to prove it was not interecepted.
PM is supposed to be about rewarding information gattering and inteligence,
Waiting game now
The worst part is just how inconsistent the clarifications are. It's literally just flipping a coin on the mood of the person deciding
Uncle Roger why you selling at a discount? Haiyaaaaa