Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?

impossible

it seems germany will have a new chancellor , Olaf didnt get the confidence vote

by laws, prime ministers (chancellor) can stay on his post before elections. Elections probably will happen in 2025, so here we need to expect that Sholz will leave post himself after parliament voted against him.

SPD is pushing Scholz out as we speak, see German media, to follow US in attacking Russia. If they manage to put in Pistorius this year for Scholz there will be war with Russia and no elections next year.

They "cannot" put Pistorius, they would need other parties to put Pistorius there. Scholz might leave because most of the party is already showing him the door and the AfD is announcing its intention to support Scholz in the Vote of Confidence. That would be humiliation for the SPD, forced to remain in the Government, in minority and inoperative, thanks to the votes of the AfD. If it is clear that the AfD really intends to go through with the plan, the only way to break things is for Scholz to step down.

Lets gooo

The Rules for this Bet are somewhat unclear: In Germany there is pretty much no option to have no Kanzler at all. Even when a new Bundestag is elected or when the Kanzler (or a Minister) retires prematurely the old Kanzler/Minister always stay in their position as comissionary/managing Kanzler/minister. It would be very relevant for this Bet whether Scholz being only "comissionary" Kanzler counts towards Yes or No as a clarification.

[link removed].org/v/s/[link removed]

You are correct again...Good job!

Hope cdu afd fdp make a coalition. Scholtz is not a proper leader for DE giveb trump is in power

as I german I can tell you that will not happen. No one wants to do a coalitation with the AFD because they are afraid to loose many votes for the population.

Thats why our gdp is slowly contracting bro

FDP :'D good one bro, they are not even going to be in the Bundestag

let the populist solve it, sure - just take a look at italy to see how thats going

ur die AFD kann Deutschland noch retten! Die CDU hat das erst verursacht! Wir haben 150.000 offene HAftbefehle, 2 Gruppenvergewaltigungen am Tag und 50.000 Messerangriffe von Migranten seit 2015! Noch Fragen?

How can Yes still be at 7%

2024 not 2025

Vote of confidence [link removed], new election in mid february [link removed]

Told you..[link removed]

A vote of confidence will be held in December, but the current government will remain in place with Chancellor Scholz. New elections are due to take place in mid-February.

[link removed].org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany

?

Christian Democratic Union

This is the group that wants to merge w Afd

Articles flying...this is the next geopolitic thing to pop..BUY Yes

For clarification, all of the following options lead to a YES: (1) Scholz could step down due to pressure from his party

(2) opposition can vote for a new chancellor that is willing to force a vote of confidence

(3) a vote of confidence takes place early and replaces Scholz

I agree

For everyone confused here: The possibilities are: Scholz asks the parliament whether it still has confidence in him. that would most likely fail. then after 60-80days reelections will happen (In this time he stays chancelor, unless the parliament elects someone else). Or the parliament can elect a new chancelor, then Scholz is out immediately. The new chancellor would most likely then ask the parliament for confidence and reelections would happen. Or third option: The two remaining coalition parties find someone else to cooperate and do that until normal election time. but thats highly unlikely, given that nearly all opposition parties would benefit from reelections.

And why the government wont do the way you just described: "Or the parliament can elect a new chancelor, then Scholz is out immediately"?

because the only way for the other possible candidate (Friedrich Merz of the CDU Party) to get elected is by votes by the far-right-wing AFD

and the CDU still has a party agreement to not work together with AFD, and there will be a lot of medial uproar if this happens

Election will be next year

December

everyone speaks about him resigning before january: [link removed]

However, it is very unlikely that there will be a vote of no confidence. The next chancellor would then have to be elected with the votes of the AFD. Almost impossible to agree on a common new chancellor. So Scholz can wait until January without anything happening. They can put pressure on him to make the Vertrauensfrage before january but nothing more.

But if the Vertrauensfrage is this month, he is likely out this year, right?

In between Parliamente dissolution and elections ... maximum of 60 days. If Scholz calls for a "Vertrauensfrage" and loses ... it is still his responsibility to go to the President of the Republic and ask for dissolution ... and this request would have to take place during the 1st 21 days after having lost. He would still be president until the election unless in 48 hours the parliament chooses a new president. This would be then the same scenario as a "vote of confidence" ... because to have a new president you need the Green Party and/or AFD on the anti-Scholz boat and voting for someone else. Who? Merz? Another SPD Chancellor? With the support of the CDU/CSU? For sure not with the support of the FDP.

If the vote of confidence is answered negatively by Parliament, the Chancellor is not initially obliged to respond. He has the option of continuing the government as before or forming a new coalition. There is also the possibility of asking the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag and initiate new elections. He can accept or reject the Federal Chancellor's request. But he will always remain Chancellor until the election and even afterwards until a new coalition is formed if he does not resign.

The parliament can choose another chancellor and kill the new elections ... within 48 hours

you need Green Party and AFD in that case. CDU will not Vote with AFD. And AFD will likely not Voto for Merz.

so Scholz needs to resign himself (very unlikely) or the all Parties in Parliament need to come together for one new candidat (also very unlikely)

Correct.

[link removed]