This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures the listed intersections in Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by September 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersections will be considered captured if any part of the intersections is shaded blue, indicating a claimed Ukrainian counteroffensive/reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded blue by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Ukraine comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Ukraine captures the intersections, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Vilne Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vilne+intersection.png Kucheriv Yar Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+intersection.png Location Zoomed: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne+zoom.jpeg Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne.jpeg Vilne Intersection Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/mQJabFjS1M5cWNyt5 Kucheriv Yar Intersection Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FeV7XeKUnqdXMGfx7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Of course, they painted the entire city, based on just one reference point from the north.
There are no Ukrainian troops there either; there is only evidence from the northern part.
game over loser relay
BUY "YES"
Ukrainian forces are now a couple meters from the Kucheriv Yar intersection
The anus has tightened
Could you share the source please?
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Update from Deepstate: Ukrainian defence forces have regained their positions near the villages of Nove Shakhove and Kucheriv Yar.
sell your shit notards
yes, when it's a 100
Liberation is coming
keep dreaming
Yeah Im off this market, there is a bunch of geolocated fotage of the russians advancing in the area and the reports from both Ukrainian and Russian milbloggers are making the situation seem quite bad. For anyone that is interested in this october 31 market keep in mind that Vilne has already been recapured during this market period so only Kucheriv Yar needs to get captured by Ukraine for this market to resolve to yes
The Ukrainian Armed Forces face the important task of cutting off this salient. So far, their successes have been tactical, but work is underway, and there's a high probability they'll succeed by October 31.
gg Ukraine just got Vilne back under control
but they need to capture kucheriv yar as well
well well well
it's funny how price is not at 90c+ only because ISW map painter is on drugs
Radov writes that the situation for the Russians continues to deteriorate. The map has been updated, and Kucheriv Yar and Vilne are now firmly under Ukrainian control.
t . me/motopatriot78/42542
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According to Radov's Russian map, there are Ukrainian troops in Kucheriv Yar and Vilne. Ukrainian military observer Maschovets stated today in a YouTube stream on Channel 5 that Deepstate isn't updating its map in the Dobropillya direction to avoid harming Ukrainian troops. He hinted that they'd let the Russian command think there are still their soldiers there, so they wouldn't send reinforcements. I think Deepstate will paint Kucheriv Yar as Ukrainian in 2-3 days. After that, the ISW will be forced to update the map as well. 11 days is a very long time, considering that there are no longer any Russians in either village.
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I would fully agree. The Ukrainian sources ISW uses are all under opsec and does not release information to ensure the counteroffensives success and not to endanger their soldiers. Meanwhile the russian side are all overseen by the russian state so saying that Ukraine is winning in the area is probably not in their interest
Ukrainian military liberated the settlement of Pankovka and adjacent territories in the Dobropillya direction, - Azov reported
Very credible resource
Took L, there's no way ISW change map there in time even if bullish reports come in rn
gz No guys, your win
Dont bet on anything that is evaluated based on ISW map,...
According to the latest information, the Russians in Kucheriv Yar are surrounded and cut off from logistics. How long they will hold out there is unknown.
t . me/myro_shnykov/8637
r*ssians keep getting fucked there, let's hope UA forces keep up the momentum for at least of another 48h
they already control both villages, ISE mapping is just weird
OSINT researchers claim that there are no Russians in Kucheriv Yar. I would estimate the chances that ISW will update the map in favor of Ukrainians by September 15 at 50/50.
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According to the latest data, the Russians are surrounded near Kucheriv Yar. The village of Vilne is under Ukrainian control. But there is no trust in the ISW map. The example of Pokrovsk showed that they update the map the worst and with big errors.