PoliticsMarkets

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

$4,560 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Yes$5K Vol.

33%

RulesMarket Context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Holders

PolyticksPapermarket149d ago

While Republicans are favored to keep the Senate, they may lose seats. Trump’s appointments have been sailing through the Senate with 53 GOP votes. If the conference shrinks to 51-52 in the next Congress, the math for confirming justices as conservative as Alito & Thomas gets much harder.

AbigxilPapermarket178d ago

I don’t see it. Thomas has literally said he wants to die on the bench, and Trump just said in an interview last week that he "hopes they stay." They aren't going to be bullied into retiring by some "strategic" plan. No vacancy in 2026.