This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the U.S. will cut all military aid to Ukraine between February 28, 2025, 2:30 PM ET and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any official announcement will qualify regardless of if/when the cuts actually occur. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration.
What is the result of this now?
Perhaps somebody could share the following on the UMA discord? As of right now it's probably right that this should resolve to yes, because there were statements by WH spokesperson as well as two high level official (Ratcliffe and Waltz). But these statements were made after the dispute here, so this particualr dispute should resolve to P4 on this particular market, because of its rules: officials statement from Trump admin was needed, not just press leaks, and at the point of dispute there were only press reports from anonymous sources. Especially given Trump's history, it was (at the time of the dispute) plausible that those leaks were a negotiation strategy. After the time of dispute reputable sources mentioned that there is no official statement available to them, and even Ukrainians themselves were not sure if the halt is in place, and if it is then to what extent (which is also relevant because this particular market needed ALL military aid to be cut). So ideally this particualr review should resovle to P4, and only after taht the market should resolve to "yes".
any more donations
there’s probably a higher chance the vote goes the other way but i’m just collecting free money for now.
The bar for "cutting all military aid to Ukraine" is very high. For example starlink/starshield is still working, and parts of it are funded by DoD contracts. In view of this and similar examples, as well as the rules, this should resolve to Yes only if there is a concrete official statement by the Trump administration. Currently the WH website mentions other recent/controversial developments such as the Mexico/Canada tariffs, but there's nothing about cutting military aid to Ukraine. In contrary, the only statement I could find post Trump/Zelensky meeting is along the lines of "negotiations are ongoing".
it would be very sad if this market resolves to YES by decision of the UMA vote because the majority shareholders could vote themselves correct. There has been no official administration announcement stating that the cut of aid to Ukraine has occured. Easy search, know your facts. Especially what an official presidential administration statement is.
If UMA will scam this i will quit this shit. There are other platform that didn't say in additional contex something that is contrary to the rules.
Rules that they have writed*
I agree with all you said, I would expect that at the very least Polymarket refunds all No's their nominal losses.
also according to [link removed] US is still sharing intelligence to attack Russian forces on russian occupied Ukrainian territory. This is a form of military aid so this cannot possibly resolve to yes rght nowi
it would be helpful if somebody posts this in Uma discord
Do you really think you're the smartest and will turn $200 into $40K? Lol.
Study conviction.
NGL this is the plan. I thought it's not the worst bet, knowing that trump has used media leaks his whole life to steer the narrative
It's not people's fault if the clarification made the bet worst and if the bet was ended too early. Still no official source as yet to come forward and as we have seen with reuters we can't always believe what anonymous source suggest. It’s obvious someone wanted to rush things just for their own gains.
polymarket doing scam activity, just like with the epstein market
according to this reputable source [link removed].pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-03-04/americans-suspend-military-aid-to-ukraine-day-1105-war "an official decision to withhold military aid has not yet been announced." So this is P4 right now. There's a real possibility that media reports are controlled leaks from WH meant as a negotiation tactic.
The news is not officially released. The specific source is unknown. They are all anonymous media. Just judge "yes" based on these. Polmaeket is so funny, similar to a fraud market.
pause=cut?Are you kidding me?
Only anon sources. Any Trump administration Official annuncement
No official annuncments from the trump administration. Its clearly P4
u are right
I can't find an announcement from the Trump administration that says "The US has cut all military aid to Ukraine".
Redefining "cut" to mean "pause" is some insanely suspicious logic. If they're going to twist the english language to ensure the market resolves in a favorable outcome I'm going to quickly lose trust in this website.
Like it if he doesn't actually cut the aid and "resumes" its delivery, they would still receive all the aid. WTF is up with this post-hoc "clarification" after everyone has already made their bets on the plain english meaning of the resolution criteria??
The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution,” the White House official said
When you pause the player, it is not a stop yet, there is a separate STOP button for that! STOP is not pressed!
The additional context dialogue box is from polymarket, not the resolver, right?
Thank you
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration. Any Trump confirmation
Someone contact polymarket
Any link to announcement except "One anonymous guy said..." ?