GeopoliticsMarkets
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
June 3011%
June 154%
June 12<1%
June 8<1%
$2,508,060 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30$366K Vol.11%
2%
June 15$807K Vol.4%
3%
June 12$1M Vol.
<1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the US government and the US military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
wonder why everyone is talking about poly64 on iran related markets
n official football matches, they fix the result however they want — and you expect an objective outcome in such matters?
Exact words today...?
should we sell YES?
He can not, it is impossible in 2026
Iran has not agreed any MoU document with US - IRGC outlet Iran has not yet agreed any document for a memorandum of understanding with the United States, IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported, citing a source with knowledge. Contrary to President Donald Trump’s claim, no text for an initial memorandum of understanding with Washington had been approved, the report said.
well well well
If Iran says there is no longer a ceasefire, will that count?
NO
"Trump announces"
come on its just a little playful strike play with friends trump already said he won the war
Why would he say it now if he hasnt in the last 60 days
Lol hell never say it just keep bombing
ALL OUT WAR SOON
WSJ: [US] military pressure [will] only increase until Iran ceded to the president’s terms, threat designed to hasten an agreement, the officials said.
Every healthy ceasefire has incidents like this
I have seen many ceasefires in my life that are not ceasefires at all. This is one of them
Just a love tap until they announce it's not.
ceasefire keeps on going
These are self defense strikes. You “YES” guys are gonna lose everything
“ U.S. Central Command forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief's direction.”
The
What if Trump does attack Iran, but he doesn’t announce a ceasefire over. Does it resolve yes or no?
No
"however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." That could indicate that if MSM reports that the strikes signal an end to the ceasefire, then it could resolve to Yes anyways
"Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered." read the rules
I'd argue that the supposed large scale strikes tonight would constitute a cessation of the cease fire
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
June 30 · Yes
Amount
$
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