This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on December 5 than on November 28, 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on November 28 than on December 5, 2025. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Haha ots gonna go down and so many are gonna be like, oh shiiiit
Curious why so many people are doubling down on “Up”
because its super unlikely for it to go down. if you take a look at the math, for it to go below 41.
It doesn't have to go below 41 lol. 41.2 is already 50-50, 41.1 is down. Literally takes one bad poll to get there.
My thoughts too. With the amount of bad press this past week I can’t believe he will honestly be more favorable than last week.
Pretty sure people are coping that his numbers are so bad and think theres no way it could go down again lol
im saying for it to go down youd need a poll that reports a value pretty far below 41. Polls are weighed by time (and their in house bias thigns stuff) and the current moving average (polym) is 'backed' by a bunch of 43/45 polls with a few exceptions. to drag that down would require something like 38 from a credible source that has high influence in their ratings
im going to let the man with 9k profit speak.
Damn. Almost. Survey160 poll was just too old to pull it down to 41.2
watching who enters and exits tells you more than any analysis tbh
Could I get the contact details for your group?
its a bot