This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which is aimed at or otherwise has the effect of suspending or canceling all military aid to Ukraine between March 18 2:00 ET and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any action taken by Trump or his administration which either officially institutes a policy of ending military aid to Ukraine, or otherwise has the effect of ending military aid to Ukraine will qualify regardless of if/when the enacted policy goes into effect. Temporary suspensions of all military aid will qualify. Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why has the market not been resolved yet?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which is aimed at or otherwise has the effect of suspending or canceling all military aid to Ukraine between March 18 2:00 ET and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
What happened before March 18 doesn't matter
President Donald Trump paused all U.S. military aid to Ukraine in early March 2025. This decision followed a contentious meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on February 28, 2025, which ended abruptly without resolution. The suspension affects over $1 billion in arms and ammunition that had been slated for delivery to Ukraine.