This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trump NO.1
Uma will touch this too?
Honestly suprised this isnt valued at least slightly higher given the EO. I mean I know that it still needs to go through congress but its not unreasonable that they could absorb the department elsewhere within the next month and a half especially given how much support congress has had for this. 2% just feels quite low to me especially given the other market for this happening within 2025. If it's going to happen it will likely happen soone rather than later.
“I think we’re looking at putting things in different departments where they can operate very efficiently as we look at how we can shut down the Department of Education,” according to the education secretary
Not to mention Trump said that McMahon would be our final secretary of education and she keeps talking about completing the "final mission" of the DoE implying the ultimate goal is to phase it out entirely.
All in all I only put $50 on this because just based on percentage it seems like a longshot but it just seems undervalued to me given that there is a reasonable world in which this happens and is basically only prevented by 2 factors: (1) if judges or congress block this and (2) if they are too slow in dismantling things to get it done within the 100 day time period.
They can bypass Congress in case of department elimination by merging, some experts say. That's why this was clarified in the conditions going for YES.
hard to say
I bet all in on this
sources say this will end in yes pretty soon
It says right there: "until it merges or ceases activity" . The executive order is given, but it still has to pass through senate or congress or something and this could still take months (I'm not an American not sure exactly how this has to happen)
why isnt this resolved yet? the order has been sign
you're retard , but don't worry, I was like that too, I'm trying to get over it
Why is he a retard exactly?
- It has to cease operations entirely. It has to be shut down and dead and the doors locked behind them; an order to close is not enough to be considered a 'yes', the job of closing/merging has to be actually complete by April 30.
someone should propose a yes already, the EO is signed. I tried but I dont have the bond. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No", and since he has performed the executive action needed this should resolve to a 'yes'
corecttt
Did you even read the rules? It very clearly states at the start "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely"... This literally hasn't happened. An Rob saying to do this isn't what the market is betting on, so it's worthless
An EO**
semantics, if he signed it pay us
and ceases operations entirely is cherry-picking, thats not the only condition. there's three other paragraphs
It literally isn't semantics, it's the direct wording of what this market is for. The definition is very clearly laid out, and unless you can prove that the DoE has ceased to function as the market is ruling, you won't be paid, period
Ceases operations entirely is literally what has to happen. A merger or consolidation where the DoE is no longer a thing has to happen, but that hasn't happened yet. They may be trying to do that, but saying "I'm going to tear down this thing, and am ordering it to happen" is NOT the same as it actually being taken down. Which is again, what the market is looking for. Intentions don't matter
Shush. Let someone lose their UMA bond for being an idiot.
hehe
learn to take a L
Grok says odds should be at 20-30% range
Verdict (Cautious) April 29: 35-45 percent. EO today (March 20) and cuts move fast, but reconciliation’s 5-7 weeks (May 1-8) miss by days legal snags (40 percent) and slim GOP margins (20 percent) drag it. Option 2 half-done by April 29. End of 2025: 60-70 percent. EO sets stage, reconciliation or H.R. 899 land by fall (July-October) 287 days buffer legal and congressional risks. Merger sticks, title fades.
AI is terrible at predictiions
Are people forgetting you need 60 senators to vote to end the department of education
he doesn't need 60 senators to rename it and fold it into another department. and per rules that counts.
im confused why are yes people thinking he is ceasing operations entirely when news outlets clearly state its getting DOWNSIZED?
lol then holding yes is pointless
Department won't be shuttered but perhaps it can be folded into different other agencies? Somewhat of a gray area
does rhis ppl realy think no still have a chance💀
brahhh where tf is the pump
Trump looks so good signing that paper
How do I interpret this rule? What does it mean to "end" or "cease"? Today's EO is about ordering the closure, but the act of congress is required to formally close it right?
trump please just sign the eo its not that deep
we have 2months for that
fly me to the moon~~~ and let me play among the stars~~~
ill wake up tommorow in sunshine
NY Times - President Trump plans to sign an executive order on Thursday instructing Education Secretary Linda McMahon to begin dismantling the agency, according to two White House officials.
NY times - The department cannot be closed without the approval of Congress, which created it.