This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announce that they have ended their participation as an active principal, facilitator, or mediator in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official announcements will qualify. Informal or contingent statements, statements of intent without a formal directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Trump announced he's backing away from Ukraine negotiations, saying "This isn't my war." Apparently, his new foreign policy doctrine is: "America First, Europe's Problems Last, and Golf Schedule Always."
It probably won't happen, but it's definitely not a 94% chance.
Youre right 94 is still too low to be honest
We discussed the attack on Russia’s docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides. It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace. President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields. - Trump talked with Putin
Yes bros coping good in comments
Why why why
Trump has become more detached on the Ukrainian conflict issue, and is no longer concerned about the lack of progress in negotiations, ABC reported, citing unnamed American officials.
The big picture: The Trump administration is growing impatient to move its strategic focus off Ukraine and onto other urgent priorities, particularly in the Pacific. [link removed]
Have you seen the text of the Ukrainian memorandum? Negotiations at a dead end
Ukraine is disrupting negotiations, Zelensky does not need peace and elections. The US will have to leave, it's time to buy!
The same newspaper has already published a refutation. "Ukraine did not notify the Trump administration of the attack in advance, a Ukrainian official said. A U.S. official also told reporters the Trump administration was not made aware of the attack."
Ukraine did notify the Trump administration of the attack in advance, a Ukrainian official said. [link removed]
It is highly likely that Putin will use today's Ukrainian attack on part of the nuclear triad as a pretext to withdraw from the negotiations
Why would he do that? He can just stick to his terms (or tighten them slightly) and then the negotiations go nowhere. That sets it up perfectly for Trump to walk away and say both countries are too far apart and are attacking each other relentlessly, there is no purpose in our continued involvement.
This could also happen
On Monday will be new meet between Ukraine and Russian with 0 results, after this Trump can exit from negotiation like he said before.
The date of the next round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will be announced in the near future, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
Apparently, the Russians will keep Trump in negotiations for another month
June 2, not too far away.
WSJ: Trump May Impose Sanctions on Moscow or Pull Out of Ukraine Talks
He would rather go for the sanctions because he wants to be the one to make this historic deal.
The New York Times: Trump told Zelensky that Russia and Ukraine should negotiate an end to the war themselves