This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 200% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from the People's Republic of China by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 200% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from People's Republic of China is enacted. Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
why yes is so low? your guys do not like Trump's tariff?
it should be 0 now
It's kind of crazy that there's two months left in this, there's all this directional movement towards more tariffs, and yet the market hasn't budged from the state before the rare earth ban and Trump insinuating 245% tariffs. Still kind of new here, but the market seems really inefficient compared with any equities market. Option premiums would have risen immediately on the same, for example.
no offense, but I believe you overrated your judgement. China has made it clear that, given the current tariff levels, trade can no longer be effectively conducted. Even if Trump imposes so-called reciprocal tariffs, China will no longer respond. Going forward, if the two sides fail to reach an agreement, any confrontation is more likely to occur in other areas, such as China banning the Boeing import yesterday, rather than through further adjustments to overall tariff rates.
The liquidity is low cause people do not know how to bet anymore. Polymarket is a scam site
Cash $0,00 and crying about low liquidity - any more sad stories on your mind you want to tell us about?
It could be resolved to yes any minute
hi big guy you are welcome to buy yes all the way up for 116K - wait for that any min and win it all
$111k of that liquidity is at $0.99, so that makes no sense. You'd only take home $5k.
[link removed]
These fresh news should put a cap on the escalation: [link removed]
fake news
chinese media said whitehouse will add tariff to 245% [link removed]
Then buy it, feng ge
liquidity way too low. this is a untradable market
be careful to the phrase "up to" , which is not qualify to the rules.
China just banned rare earth shipments. I can see tariffs rising on this.
I thought 40% was a long shot. I bet and won. I thought 100% was near impossible, I bet and won. So, 200% ? why the heck not. I am pretty sure I wont win, but....at this point anything can happen.
Please add Will China stop ALL exports to the U.S.
1000%!!!!