This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action that explicitly restricts individuals' access to abortion in the United States by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Bills which impose limitations or expand existing restrictions on when, where, or under what conditions abortions can be performed, including measures that reduce the gestational age limit for legal abortions, increase mandatory waiting periods, or limit the circumstances under which exceptions are allowed will qualify. Legislation or executive actions which add regulatory hurdles for providers, such as increased licensing requirements, facility standards, or reporting obligations will not qualify. Any bill signed into law or executive actions within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation or perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns or leaves office), this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, with a consensus of credible reporting used as needed.
The ghosts of unborn Trump Jr's would like to comment
Nice dump from whales-manipulators
Can you just send the rest of your money into my bank account
We all fucked up.
Trump is fucking clown.
why so little movement on this market? it seems like a big issue...
Because no sane person believes he will touch abortion
Yeah, sure. Same as Ukraine help stops ahaha, wait more
trump never said that abortion should be ban he even said that 6 weeks was too low for abortion
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this is not surprising. many of his people want abortion banned
the rules are so vague it could go in any direction, especially since there is still so much time left until end of april...
Trump was basically pro abortion during his campaign. See Melania’s pro abortion commercial. Also, repeatedly took the stance of leaving it up to the states. Trump doesn’t want to be tied to a national abortion restriction in any way
Read tricky rules dude
Read
Smart money is on yes. Our abortion laws are barbaric compared to Europe. Most European countries ban abortion at 12 weeks, we have states that allow it at 36 weeks. The phrasing of this bet and the title are a bit off from each other; it should be: will Trump legislate abortion in any way? The answer to this is very likely yes, as he should.
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RFK Jr. (Trump's nominee to lead HHS) answered a question during his confirmation hearing by saying "President Trump has told me that he wants to end late term abortions... I serve at the pleasure of the president and I'm going to implement his policies".
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Read rules, anything might be counted as a restriction
It might be any restriction
This is obviously not happening: [link removed]
Same as tariffs for Mexico/Canada, eh?
Read the rules
whats happening with the market?
god knows what this market is reacting to
do you think it will go back higher because people seem to be skeptical?
maybe bruh lets ese
the volume of money coming in the market is increasing everyday weather be on the yes or no side
no it alr peaked at 28% and 22%
market gotta resolve at this point
vague rules needs to be resolved
Language is so fucking vague
What do we think chat
That law would not pass the congress. And Trump is too smart to sign an executive order on this unpopular measure
i'm not sure he is...
Same as taxes for Canada/Mexico?)
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this is a wrap, the underreported executive order "enforcing the hyde amendment" makes it so that VA Hospitals cannot provide abortions. Reversing a 2022 policy interpretation that the VA had. This is a national, in the US, limitation of where and when abortions can be performed.
Removing funding for abortion does not restrict access to abortion. As an unbiased third party here, that’s why this hasn’t resolved to “yes” yet.
at first glance I would agree on that, but it does more than removing funding. It rescinds two large executive orders AND adds new conditions. Specifically related to how abortions were categorized as "health" to expand access, and the VA further interpreted that in 2022 to provide abortions on demand, see here for an explanation [link removed] and of course, find a source that you respect to see if it says the same thing.
This new Executive Order controls the VA as an agency, and removes access nationwide from VA hospitals, not just reimbursement from other hospitals.
that satisfies "where", and the conditions are 'or' which means only 1 of "when, where, circumstances" has to be true. but I would posit that when and circumstances has been satisfied as well.
So you’re saying it’s now illegal to receive an abortion at a VA hospital? Can you point me to the paragraph in an EO (either one Trump signed or one of Biden’s that he rescinded) that indicates that? I’m all on board to buy yes and advocate for this to resolve if so.
I'm working on it, right now the white house seems to believe they've done it “ Federal overreach and taxpayer dollars will no longer force violations of faith and conscience or impede the ability of states to determine life policies through a vote of the people. For example, under President Biden, the Department of Defense reimbursed abortion-related travel expenses, the Department of Veterans Affairs allowed hospitals to provide abortions, and the Department of Health and Human Services paid for abortions for illegal immigrants.” [link removed]
I see what they are saying, but I don’t see any facts to back up their claims.
alright, for now I'll wait to see what the implementation details become "The Director of the Office of Management and Budget shall promulgate guidance to the heads of executive departments and agencies related to implementation of sections 1 and 2 of this order.", on the VA specific side, it is possible that the VA does its own independent rulemaking, which complicates this further. So OMB would be the most direct, no more signatures necessary
I think that’s correct
pump my bags sir
thats genuinly fucked up. So much for protecting veterans. Republicans dont give a shit
ayo shouldn't reinstating laws count towards " Bills which impose limitations or expand existing restrictions on when, where, or under what conditions abortions can be performed" hence the market should resolve to a yes?
What laws are you talking about?
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Global Gag Rule a sweeping policy that will decrease abortion access in countries around the world. This far-reaching policy defunds health organizations in other countries that provide abortion services or information, even for victims of sexual assault. Many of these critical organizations will likely shutter as a result or be forced to stop providing or even talking about abortion services.
He has absolutely restricted access to abortion, specifically with a new executive order that rescinds a prior executive order that uses the exact terminology of this market [link removed] Although it says it only addresses the removal of federal funding of abortion, the specifically revoked EOs say “to otherwise protect and expand access to the full range of reproductive healthcare services” This was RESCINDED which means this market is satisfied as its a Bill (defined as a bill or any executive action in the sentence before) “which impose limitations or expand existing restrictions on when, where, or under what conditions abortions can be performed” And from the Fact Sheet about these orders [link removed] “For example, under President Biden, the Department of Defense reimbursed abortion-related travel expenses, the Department of Veterans Affairs allowed hospitals to provide abortions, and the Department of Health and Human Services paid for abortions for illegal immigrants.” The VA hospitals were providing abortions, now they aren’t, this limits when and where abortions are performed.
The rules state that it has to restrict abortion in the U.S. Globally doesn’t matter
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