This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine enact or sign any deal between March 31 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian minerals. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying mineral deals include but are not limited partnerships involving minerals, future rights to mineral resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to Ukrainian minerals. For the purpose of this market "enacted" means that the agreement has been officially signed or otherwise formally adopted by both parties within the market’s time frame. A qualifying agreement which is signed by both parties will qualify, regardless of whether it is later ratified by relevant bodies (U.S. Congress, Verkhovna Rada, etc.). Announcements of an agreement will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
never forget the names of the scammers in this market
scam... news outlets shared the "agreement" after april (auto no) / the "agreement" had no explicit mineral deal articles not mentioned like that (solid no) / a twitter post announcing the "deal" was considered official (stated to be not qual.) / yet resolved to yes.. the outcome is no and no only. the verification system they have is broken. the uma votes didnt care about the details at all, p1 shared solid arguments while p2 was simply bs'ing. complete bullshit just as the one a month ago.. pm should've taken the matter into hands and disregard the scam uma vote results. it is clear that the real outcome based on the rules is NO and NO only... disgrace
scam is done
The ultimate question: Will Polymarket allow UMA voters to once again ignore resolution rules and harm the community like they did 1 month ago?
anyone any eta on the final review?
Yep, ~7.5 hours till resolution
thank you, may i know your source?
ah yeah I see, with 82% revealed and at like 99% this will 100% settle for “Yes” right?
Right
Not 99%. But quite literally 100%. Before the vote, it’s probably like 99.99%+, and now that the 53% threshold has been reached, it’s 100% going for yes
I think they're going to give no. That's why they're taking this much time if it's yes, they already gave yes by now.
Then why isn't everybody buying No right now?
No one has any idea what's going to happen.
look at the activity. there are lots of people buying No and selling Yes.
When will the outcome of the final review be announced?
67% voted for 100%. So its cooked anyways!
"For the purpose of this market "enacted" means that the agreement has been officially signed or otherwise formally adopted by both parties within the market’s time frame. A qualifying agreement which is signed by both parties will qualify, regardless..." didnt they sign on april 30th? so its prob. yes
Why are they trying to push for yes? They have not signed anything yet and its 3rd of May!
Gonna sell everything before its too late. 42 revealed and still at 100% so yeah, theres that. Would have been too nice :(
yeah it's cooked i got half the money back at least
Yeah, I think it got rigged again. Polymarket wants to get a broader audience? Not with this tactic, not gonna happen.
rigged how? rigged is when im wrong?
also its lose not loose
Thanks for correcting me :). Not a native english speaker and prob a typo
np lol :)
12% of the tallied votes are all Yes so i guess we can wrap it up if they reach 51%
Where are you checking this?
[link removed]
[link removed]
What's the final verdict?
Also waiting. Unfortunately I cant find the final verdict on Oracle, which is weird. I guess itll take some time here to synchronize.
Is this rigged to yes or did it go to no like it should 🤔
🔥
NO HOLDERS WIN HOLY SHIT
buckle up
its going to be a close one
Guys. Is it normal for someone buying the "winning" bet every hour with almost absolutely zero profit? Or they bought it to rig the vote? I don't understand sorry I am new
I think, that they are very very certain, that after the final review, the outcome will also be yes. And even though, its at 99,9 entry price, which sounds kinda dumb bc it can also switch to no, if you put a high amount on the line you can still profit. Although I think, there are smarter options than this here. Because imo it should resolve to no. BUT I highly doubtt it that UMA will decide this fairly. Whales will try to manipulate the correct outcome. The correct outcome should be No.
true
Because no government source published the signed text-or even confirmed the mineral-related provisions-until May 1, 2025, there was no verifiable, official information available before the market closed at 11:59 PM ET on April 30. Market rule: resolution must be based on official U.S. or Ukrainian sources and a consensus of credible reporting, all available by April 30. What happened: the treaty was signed April 30, but neither the signed text nor any government statement confirming mineral provisions was published until May 1. No official release before the deadline explicitly stated that mining rights for Ukrainian minerals were included. Therefore, without confirmed official evidence by cutoff, the condition for a "Yes" wasn't met. Per the market's rules, the correct resolution is No.
More proof that prediction markets can't predict shit
True. That's not fair