As of market creation, Texas Instruments is estimated to release earnings on January 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Texas Instruments's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas Instruments reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Texas Instruments releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Nice
but share price jump 10%
Long call with NO as a hedge would have been really nice.
hard stretch
what makes you say that, considering they have a track record of beating estimates.
(1) SM1 launched in Dec. 17 and is immune under GAAP to the 100% depreciation as per Sec. 740 (as a matter of fact, I strongly believe it's a net negative for EPS given their inventory turnover of +240 days) + (2) sluggish automotive and chips sector in Q4, which is TXN's bread and butter + (3) the strike price on this bet is 1.31, which is way higher compared to management's guidance of [link removed], hence an average of 1.26 - hard to believe they will perform in the top 25% of their guidance given
i understand that TXN's outlook for Q4 2025 mentioned that they expect revenue to decrease too however TXN has had a track history of beating their GAAP earnings except for Q3 2025. regarding your SM1 launch, they received tax benefits due to it as well which may off-set the cost. "CHIPS Act Funding: TI is receiving support from the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act, including approximately $1.6 billion in direct funding and $6-$8 billion in tax credits." anyways i'm playing small for this bet. goodluck to us.
don't confuse IRS tax with GAAP tax, the tax credits are not enough to offset their taxes, and the 100% depreciation is for the IRS and not for GAAP purposes
gg to us
great analysis :)
ggs
easiest buy