If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
last 3 times this pattern showed up, market reversed
market makers front-running the news, getting obvious
sentiment flipped fast, twitter was bearish 3 hours ago
liquidity dried up on NO side, spread widening