This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.
That would be a complete, politically catastrophic reversal of the entire Afghanistan withdrawal policy. It would be a political suicide mission.
How could this even happen?
Well now.