On November 4th, U.S. Department of Transportation secretary Sean Duffy said that if the government shutdown continues, the federal government may have to “close certain parts of the airspace” due to consequences of the shutdown. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-warns-mass-chaos-may-need-close-some-airspace-if-government-shutdown-2025-11-04/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), or any other federal agency formally closes or suspends part of U.S. civilian airspace during the current U.S. government shutdown, due to circumstances clearly caused by the shutdown. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the relevant government action must order closure or suspension of civilian airspace or flight operations, affect at least one major U.S. airport or airspace region in its entirety, and explicitly reference circumstances clearly caused by the current U.S. government shutdown as the reason for the action. Circumstances qualifying as clearly caused by the shutdown include staffing shortages of air traffic controllers or other essential air travel employees due to a lack of funding caused by the government shutdown. Routine delays and disruptions caused mainly by weather, technical, or security issues do not count. Suspensions or closures due to emergencies which are not caused by the government shutdown do not count. Closures, suspensions, or cancellations due to circumstances caused by the current U.S. government shutdown, but which are not tied to federal government action, do not count. If the current U.S. government shutdown ends and no such U.S. civilian airspace closure has been declared, this market will resolve to “No”. The shutdown will be considered to have ended if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, or other federal agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
this market is to be resolved after Dec 31, 2025
If the current U.S. government shutdown ends and no such U.S. civilian airspace closure has been declared, this market will resolve to “No”. The shutdown will be considered to have ended if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations.
Guys, let’s derisk a bit - but still keep some. Idiocracy can't stop those air controllers from striking. You know, the bet for Wednesday is uncertain - they might still decide otherwise (hopefully not). But with those manipulators, anything is possible.
The shutdown only affects non-essential parts of the government. Air traffic control and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are considered essential services vital for public safety and the economy.
The last and only time the entire U.S. national airspace system completely shut down was on September 11, 2001
Yeah thats why I'm thinking it would need like a complete catastrophy in order for that to happen again, or the govt. would have to be shutdown for at least 3 months
it doesnt need to completely shut down, just a fraction of airspace
Currently all major airports shall reduce their traffic by 10% until november 14th. Seeing as that may already be the end of the shutdown, it's extremely unlikely that even one airport cancels 100% of its traffic
That statement confuses two different things: a minor reduction due to a shutdown, and a complete halt due to a catastrophic failure
In the rare event that none of the three to five air traffic controllers show up for work at the same airport.
Trump ts'd there will be a 10k bonus for those who showed up on all shutdown days, don't think its gonna happen but it'll boost chances
Prove your words with actions, mr Donald Duck. Stop penalising people for doing the responsible thing when they or their kids are ill. This Tuesday is the second month air traffic controllers have gone unpaid. There’s a huge shortage also, people have been working insane hours for a year, and now they’re working without pay. The stress is unbearable and could lead to catastrophic errors with prison if you give wrong directions.
You sound like a bot bruh
the quote
FAA PROHIBITS MOST PRIVATE JETS AT 12 MAJOR AIRPORTS AMID SHUTDOWN’S AIR TRAFFIC STAFFING PROBLEMS - CNBC
Uh no, that's scheduled for maintenance
where did you see that?
[link removed]
If the shutdown drags on, we could see serious disruptions, including potential airspace closures, as key services are affected by funding gaps.
Many ground stop order issued by FAA, is it counted as airport shutdown ?
No. Ground stops are routinly issued to reduce the amount of incoming flight traffic by a few percent. They very rarely affect all flight operations.
News from 3 days ago are "cutting of 10% of flights in nearly 40 major airports". A closure in its entirety is gonna happen nowhere.
should have resolved yes a week ago
Why?
closing airspace is not the same as closing an entire airport. An airport can have a section of its operation closed without fully suspending operations, as has happened throughout the week, but still, no official news
The rules state the closure must "affect at least one major U.S. airport or airspace region in its entirety". Has there been an airport/region entirely closed?
By mandating these cuts, the FAA has effectively "closed" 10% of the available slots in the airspace. For the 12,000 American Airlines passengers whose flights were cancelled on Friday, that part of the airspace was, for all intents and purposes, closed to them.
Unfortunately for the yes voters, "10% of the available slots in the airspace" isn't a major US airport or airspace region.
Flight shut downs have already started not sure why market hasn’t resolved
"affect at least one major U.S. airport or airspace region in its entirety" - which airport/region has been entirely closed?
The language says airspace or flight operations. There’s a good argument for Yes. What to I know, I have a negative PNL
Yes, the language does say that. The language also says "affect airport/region in its entirety". Both of these conditions have not been met, right?
The conditions: “To qualify, the relevant government action must order closure or suspension of civilian airspace or flight operations, affect at least one major U.S. airport or airspace region in its entirety, and explicitly reference circumstances clearly caused by the current U.S. government shutdown as the reason for the action.” The order states: “To maintain the highest standards of safety in the NAS, certain air carriers will be required to reduce by their total daily scheduled domestic operations between 6:00 a.m. and 10:00 p.m. local at each airport by 10 percent, subject to the provisions set forth in this Order” This is clearly government action ordering closure or suspension of flight operations
you can propose a resolution
A 10% nationwide reduction isn’t a closure -- the rule requires at least one major airport or airspace region to be shut in its entirety and explicitly cite the shutdown. This order doesn’t meet that bar.
The question at hand is if 1) the government ordered (it did, here’s the order: [link removed] a restriction 2) a restriction of airspace OR flight operations. Flights have been cancelled ([link removed] and airports have had ground closures ([link removed]
in its entirety
you're missing key nuances on dis market -- [link removed]
[link removed]
Done right?
THis is going to be another one of those UMA voting scams where it did actually happen but votes go the other way because people have money on it.
it could be , but thay only really happens on markets with time sensitive stuff like the before sep31 isreal ceasefire broken market , but us airspace will close down for sure
Lmao the title is about "Closing Airspace" but the terms define resolution to yes if any civillian flight operations or airports are suspended or affected. Easiest yes ever.
I especially like the timing of this confidence!
"affect at least one major U.S. airport or airspace region in its entirety" - which airport/region was entirely closed?
free money
a
They just cancel flights so why would they close airspace??
Not enough ATC at a specific airport to cover a certain region. They wouldn’t close the entirety of US airspace