This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the European Union between May 26, and July 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and EU as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both named entities will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the European Union, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
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You realize that means he’s announcing more tariffs right
Nobody can be 100% sure. Yesterday, Trump said he was “probably two days off from sending EU a letter.” It was the final threat to force them to close the deal by Wednesday. I’m not denying it’s difficult, but it’s probable that one of those decisions will be the agreement
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40 hours
40h, 22m, 14s
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Says this week. Maybe they will wait after Wednesday.
This means there is no deal, no tentative deal, nothing other than a bona fide understanding to get the deal done asap
A deal that sets a 10% tariff isn’t nothing. It’s a specific agreement.
First sentence: The European Union is aiming to clinch a preliminary trade deal with the US this week. You want to bet the other market yes, not this one.
https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august/will-trump-agree-to-a-tariff-agreement-with-european-union-in-july?tid=1751961141494
A preliminary deal that sets a tariff is still a deal. The rules don’t require a final, ratified treaty. The framework deal to set a 10% tariff meets the criteria.
“ The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both named entities will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs”
47 hours
The Aug 1 extension is just the tariff date. The political deal is still happening before the 9th. Easy YES.
Just you wish. 48 hours. Why do you think he extended? 😂
Likely no agreement by July 9th, however a deal will likely be made before August. EU is likely negotiating in good faith.
That’s exactly why he extended. It splits the political deadline (July 9) from the technical one (Aug 1). They need an “agreement in principle” this week to avoid failure.
You need an agreement Wednesday to avoid a loss of position. Us/EU will agree the continue negotiations, post pone additional tariffs due to good faith negotiations, however no type of agreement or deal will have been made.
Skeleton agreement was in the air last time check. Rn i blindly bought at 21yes
A minimum qualifier would be the India mini trade deal. An agreement to continue negotiations would fail to qualify as a yes resolution.
An agreement in principle is a real deal. It sets the base tariff, not just an agreement to keep talking
An agree to continue isn’t enough. But the EU’s agreement in principle aims to lock in 10% tariffs and avoid 50%. That’s a concrete mutual agreement on tariffs, fitting the “publicly announced lowering” rule
The eu only agrees to it if they get immediate tariff relief which takes the pressure of them to negotiate quickly
Tariffs have been delayed for the EU to hash out an agreement... July 9th no longer a cliff edge
I need some dick dick dick dick
Betting against EU bureaucracy.... easy money
Go go
yes is still cheap lol
EU Spokesperson: Our aim remains to find an agreement before July 9th. EU has made good progress in talks on an agreement in principle with the US
what should they say? we don’t need agreement? they will say anything but deal with EU gonna be very complex and it’s not ready
They backed off and looking for a solution similar to UK
Big black balls
Ez
Trump says US nears trade deals as tariff deadline delayed [link removed]
The real deadline for the tariff agreement is 1 August. Trump noted in his letter that the new tariffs will take effect that day, so 1 August is also the EU’s cutoff date.
even it's not done, it's so misspriced. Should be between 40 and 50
this is a test
US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH EU PROGRESSING: FOX NEWS
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it's logical that this deal will arrive in the coming week. And DJT said that he will not give any extra deadline for EU