This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this markets time frame will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the market's timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
no
Whales gonna argue what it means to "announce" an evacuation. Dont bother with these markets.
yea its kinda dumb to put money on this unclear thing
country after country are starting to announce evacuation / repatriation flights since this morning with this escalation. pressure is growing
US embassy is only 10 miles from recent bombings near the airport. It can be inferred that Israel and the US will have some sort of agreement not to bomb near the embassy, but this may be voided as Hezbollah fighters clue into this and inevitably move bases closer to the north. I think there may be two outcomes here: 1.) The embassy is evacuated due to a heads up from Israel getting ready to bomb Hezbollah targets who have moved in nearby, and 2.) the embassy is evacuated due to public uprisings/protests by the Lebanese who are angry at Israel and their ally (US). If you remember last year, when Israel bombed the hospital in Gaza their were riots outside of the Beirut embassy. Imagine the riots now that it is their own country being bombed, not just Palestine.
1) Makes no sense. 2) Could happen if esacalate a lot.
easy bet
Agreed :)
You guys believe US will keep them there for 30 more days when lower Beirut is being bombed?
@GNS I can't speak about the others, but yes, I expect that, unless things escalate significantly. They benefit from staff on the ground for diplomatic and intel purposes.
tanks on border...get ready for an odds bump
I think you people are forgetting that embassies primary purpose is not diplomacy but espionage
I feel like this is obvious. I think the risk is the population raiding it out of anger.
This #Argo
One step closer. The more Israel bombs these apartments the higher the chance the embassy is in danger. And Israel is not stopping.
US announces the evacuation of non essential personnel today
Source?
[link removed]
With the Hezbollah leader dead that is very likely