This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or its agencies (such as the FBI, DHS, or DoD) release any definitive statement confirming that any of the "mystery drone" clusters sighted in New Jersey or other parts of the U.S. Northeast are anything other than airplanes by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" Any confirmation indicating that the drones are airplanes, helicopters, or normal civilian air traffic will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government.
For people trying to understand this market, it's very simple. The US Government have no idea what the mystery drones are. Maybe all was mass hysteria (most likely). This market was betting that those Mystery drones ARE something out of the ordinary and that the US Government was going to clarify what they are. Eg, are those Russian drones, Iran drones, US military drones searching for some lost nuclear warhead, aliens, etc (all those were the theories floating around when all the hype arrived and this market was created).
Besides talking about normal stuff (drones, civilian traffic, stars, etc), when asked what about the videos of drones flying above restricted military facilities, the Gov simply said that they don't know but that it is not uncommon to have illegal drones flying over. (this market is not about what normal drones are, as per market rules and stressed again in the clarification).
There is no hype anymore with the drones now then there's no Gov statement coming. This is a dead market waiting to expire. People buying Yes at 1c and hoping for a miracle 100x return in 3 days are simply transfering their money to all the No bettors at 99c waiting for greedy newbs.
Is there a better definition of a "mystery drone" than "anything above ground emitting light or sound reported to the authorities as unknown origin by an observer"? Do we accept that the origin of the stars is common knowledge, and we don't need the feds singing about them being a mass of incandescent gas, a gigantic nuclear furnace?
Despite US goverment has clarified the origin and nature of those "mystery drones" UMA voters thought it was not enough. They prefer to vote P4 (too early) so they can vote a second time and earn rewards x2. Corrupt system
can someone kindly explain exactly what is happening? preferably a coherent text and not simply frustrated ranting, thank you
Any news?
It's absurd, they already confirmed it: [link removed] Polymarket it's losing it's credibility with markets like this one or the US goverment shutdown, Syria's invasion or Venezuela elections. The results should reflect the reality and not narratives, maybe it's just a reflection of our times, reality doesn't matter, only matters how the facts are sold and narratives built.
Polymarket will lose market share and face legal consequences for those decisions
It's just both misleading title AND rules , the actual confirmation they have to make is where they are coming from , not what they are (as far as my understanding goes)
The bad thing they did is just reveal the true nature of the bet way after its creation
Propose resolution
It seems my risk was not as calculated as I thought… :(
Still alive lol but definitely learned that the wording makes a big impact on the decision.
they got me 2 for 10 bucks
yeah np which market?
when final review?
Why will it finalize if there are still some days left though? and they just banned drone flying?
Oh ok
lol paper handed hard brother, see you on the next play!
damn he did end up giving up
The Additional context was added AFTER the DHS statement was released. Clearly Polymarket team didn't think it met the criteria to resolve for Yes.
The vid you linked is from December 12th.
So they have to confirm where they come from instead of what they are
I agree the title would be misleading if there are looking for where they are from lol
Yeah in the additional it essentially says if they confirm they are drones it resolves to no
Note - this doesn't say the government needs to be correct, only definitive 🤪
New source is "Law enforcement drones" like the example "Iranian drone" will suffice
I mean, this kinda make sense
Lots of long shooters here, buyint at 10 cents and spamming the chat hoping that the flood of spam will be relevant for the resolution of this market.
Says the guy down -$60k lol
let me say then: you are not winning this like that!
You are technically only up like 10% so while I thank you for giving me all that juicy buyin at $0.13 I don't trust you either.. you lost $13k say Israel didn't invade Syria after all info said they did. IMO 20% isnt worth the risk on your side.. 5-7x on yes is a good risk to reward with a couple weeks left on clock.
[link removed] , i took 50 shares cause of the vid
Its clear as day that this is Yes. Taking this to the UMA and Polymarket Discord [link removed]
Literally DHS, FBI joint statement saying recreational drones, police drones, and misidentified planes
"Any confirmation indicating that the drones are airplanes, helicopters, or normal civilian air traffic will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution."
Where does it say that?
“ A qualifying statement must confirm new or unknown information about the nature or origin of the drones.”
Serious mental gymnastics to think it’s No
US Government confirms what Mystery Drones are in 2024?
Clear Yes
rules are poorly written... it makes sense for voters delaying to get more concrete statements that could give a second angle to close off as "yes". The creator did not disqualify law enforcement drones, even less so stars. If the creator's true intent was ufo or something then more things should have been disqualified than "airplanes, helicopters, or normal civilian air traffic". Even in then, there can be a case made that stars are alien. There is plenty of technicalities for yes for these rules.
I am starting to believe misleading intent, not just poor wording. The “additional context” section keeps getting more absurd the more confirmation of “Yes” happens
The qualification of this market needs to be investigated. It started as a bet on whether the government would clarify. Once it did, it moved to being about the nature or type and whether they were specific enough in addressing the aircraft nature. Once they did last week, now even ‘hobbyist drones’ is not enough. So basically it has to he either of a extraterrestrial or military nature to qualify as a yes? Of so why not state that from the start? This market was not designed to be erroneous, but gradually misleading and that is dangerous and a first on this platform. Who can we file an official request to investigate to?