On February 27, the Pentagon issued a directive to remove transgender service members from the military unless they receive an exemption (see: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/27/transgender-us-military-personnel-pentagon-memo-stood-down-trump-administration) This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 10 transgender service members are officially discharged or removed from the U.S. military due to this policy by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the policy is permanently canceled by the Trump administration before the removals occur, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official information form the Pentagon and Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
[link removed] Hundreds have already departed...we only need 10 for this market to swing to yes
you missed 8th grade??? No where does it say that and the whole thing isn't voluntary...they loose benefits if they don't take the package...the whole thing is involuntary
It’s got nothing to do with voluntary they haven’t been discharged or removed yet. See previous posts.
It is happening [link removed]
[link removed].uk/news/article-14792775/amp/[link removed]
Rules say “officially discharged or removed“ I would assume if there discharged bc of this policy regardless if it’s voluntary it should count
obviously...how ludicrous...if you voluntary seperate....you are then officially discharged....duh
What’s the deal is voluntary discharge due to this policy count as a yes in the rules?
They request the separation date themselves. So some people will definitely have requested June.
Already, more than 1,000 service members have voluntarily identified themselves as transgender and are slated to begin leaving, according to rough Defense Department estimates . Link : [link removed]
If they are discharged does voluntary count according to the rules?
Yes
[link removed] 1
Check this separation guide, especially the last slide. The timeline shows that, in case of voluntary separation, it takes up to 30 days for the commander to initiate the Personnel Action Request (PAR). Then it takes more time for HR to review and finish the paper work. It is mentioned that discharge should result no later than 7 months, ok might be earlier than that but still very unlikely to have someone discharged before July. [link removed].mil/wcmt-api/sites/default/wcmtfiles/2025-05/Soldiers%20Separation%20Resource%[link removed]
I think it's realistic for HR to process at least 10 requests in 2 months ;) (the injunction was lifted in early May) Also remember people have already had their PAR accepted. Some sent their PAR back in March when the policy was implemented, even before the injunction.
The supreme court has already given a green light, and Hegseth has given clear instructions to move forward. Unless literally everyone leaves voluntarily before June 6 then the military will start discharging/removing people "who have a current diagnosis or history of, or exhibit symptoms consistent with, gender dysphoria", and at least 10 out of the thousands of candidates will be discharged. Thus meeting the conditions for yes.
The litigation continues in "The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals" but the median time for the appeal process there is more than 1 year. Thus the likelihood of the reversal of this policy is low before July.
yes, but even if it continues as scheduled, the process of medical screening and the legal paperwork will take a while, as it usually does.
If there discharged bc of this policy even if they leave voluntarily market will resolve yes the rules say discharge or removal
You're right. Self-identification counts, because they will be honorably discharged due to the policy.
why are people selling the no?
Because the market will resolve yes
Rules are vague, but imo voluntary separation wouldn't count as discharge or removal. Their plan is to remove trans members after medical checks, which will be a complicated and lengthy process.
Voluntary would count per the rules discharge or removal
Voluntary exists result in a discharge but they cannot be officialy tied to this policy. And this what officials are hoping for, getting their plans done without any future legal complications.
if they leave voluntarily due to this policy it should result to yes as ther being dicharged bc of the policy
not happenin'
why did this fall in price since may 16 if theres no updated news?
thats why:) because there is no updated news
someone give me a dollar let me lock in my shi pending
[link removed]
(Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has issued internal instructions to the Pentagon to start kicking out transgender troops who do not elect to leave on their own by June 6, according to a memo obtained by Reuters.
first see then believe
no lol
No way this gets out of the courts within 2 months
Rules are too vague