This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2024 or later, with the announcement made between September 25, 2024, and April 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER.
Join the dark side
yesyesyes i am stupid
how are people still voting "Yes"? It takes 2 quarters of negative GDP growth to declare a reession, currently there are 0
No way, easy $
fuck
fair one
traitor trump the lying clown & fraud said a "depression" was coming. recession by end of 2026 is a YES
Let it all burn.
If Kamala had won I would sell my house , take a loan , sell my kidney and buy yes. With trump it's a no.
Every recession since 1981 according to the NBER (the resolution source of this bet) has started while a Republican was president. A recession has started under every Republican president since Ronald Reagan. By contrast the only recession that started under a Democratic president was in 1980 under Jimmy Carter.
Bought No although PM team might just redefine what is meant by "recession" and still resolve this as "Yes" [link removed]
This is a tricky bet, since the NBER won't admit a recession even if one happens.
shit i hope not
Why is it dropping???
I think its the May portion of this bet. If it was the whole of 2025 it would be higher.
buy more
With Trump it's impossible
FYI SPX broke support in Sep00, NBER retro-dated recession to Mar01 in Nov01.
Buying yes as a hedge mostly
recession is already here and slowly growing, but trump would never allow that to be announced at the start of his term. why are there so few 'in trump's term' markets? i'd buy it immediately if it was until 2028
It may be difficult, there's no bet in my favor.
not a chance for recession under Trump
[link removed]