EconomyMarkets
US recession by end of 2026?
$1,554,221 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
Yes$2M Vol.19%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
OMG
Polymarket selling dollar for 80 cents. What a deal
incredible
Yolft is giving 80% chance to this happening
Great market
hi
small chance for recesion in this year
WAR IS OVER! S&P IS UP, OIL IS DOWN. LITTLE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS NOW FOREVER OPEN. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
HAHAAHAHAAH good one
Can you add Eurozone recession?
its very possible, yes yes,
hehehe
Today is the day the last oil tankers from the Gulf reach Europe, and although we now know that they will be resuming, it won't be immediate. The US is in 2 days. Will be a very nasty April and May
The market is pricing today's data, not what's about to come. That's the gap. The economic damage from $112 oil hasn't shown up in any data yet. The Q1 GDP estimate coming this month will be the first read that captures even part of the war's impact, and Q2 will be the full hit.
oil-driven inflation is about to spike. They can't hike because the economy is slowing.
Every recession in the last 50 years (1973, 1979, 1990, 2008) had an oil shock as a major trigger, and the current shock is bigger than 1973 in percentage terms. Gas is over $4. Consumer spending is the first thing that breaks under energy inflation.
lol
Odd on other book still 28-30% and Trump just announced two week ceasefire. Odd should be down not up.
its not about the cease fire, your thinking short term.
I'm gonna buy every dip in the 30s. this is a EASY play. your gonna hear in the news.... inflation inflation inflation.
Sure mate. Go big or go home.
;))
we will see in 1 month. Every recession in the last 50 years (1973, 1979, 1990, 2008) had an oil shock as a major trigger
The single best trade on the board right now is #1 — US Recession YES at 32 cents.