This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Quick cash
Gg tariff doomers
So easy to make money in this market
How come so much free money
Looking back at 2025 in 2026, it was indeed an economic recession, but we have already lost.
this data is public, retail just doesn't watch it... by the time they do, move is done
UBS WARNS: RECESSION PROBABILITY NOW AT A STAGGERING 93%
lets go
arb opportunity vs the sister market, 3% edge
spread tightening = confidence increasing
this correlates 90% with the futures market, easy call
timeline moved up, resolution could be tomorrow not friday
official announcement scheduled for 3pm EST
How come so much free money?
I agree, luckily there are many Inmaterial-Cushi... who give free money
President Trump expects Q3 GDP of 4.2% or more
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BESSENT: “There are sectors of the economy that are in recession.”
ahahah what a loser you are
You have to come to terms that you lost man
market resolves YES if NBER says recession happened in 2025 by Dec 31 (they decide on jobs, income, etc., not just GDP). NBER calls recessions 8 months after peak Q4 data hits Jan 26, plenty of time.
Are you watching the jobless data bro? We swimming in money
Let them buy more
just let it go bro we are losing money
US Recession 2025 market looks mispriced. YES only 0.05 but NBER could still call one if late 2025 slowdown hits. BEA shows 1 neg GDP qtr already (Q1). 85% confidence info lag. BUY YES small size.
[link removed]
are u stup id or what? recession is two quarters of negative growth... q3 will be positive 2%.. so there won't be a recession... your yes money is free profit for us
"Recession=2 neg qtrs" is NBER myth. See [link removed] FAQ. 40% of recessions had 0-1 neg qtr. Market resolves YES if NBER calls "2025 recession" by 12/31 OR BEA 2 neg qtrs. Q3 +3.9% tomorrow? Fine. Q4 risks + 40% econ odds = your NO at risk. GL troll
ahahah a recession with a gdp up 3%
The US economy grew +3.9% in Q3, so a recession call from the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) is basically off the table for now. However, the market still resolves as "YES" if the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) officially declares that a recession began at any point in 2025, as long as they announce it by December 31, 2025. The NBER FAQ explains that the "two quarters of negative GDP" rule is a myth, they also look at jobs and income data. For example, in 2001, there was only one negative GDP quarter, yet it was still classified as a recession. JPMorgan and EY estimate about 40% odds of a 2025 recession. So if Q4 jobs data collapses, those who bet "NO" at 95c could still lose because the NBER could still call a recession even without back-to-back negative quarters.
NBER usually says things MONTHS if not YEARS late.... keep buying yes, it's free money for us NO
NBER lags years? NBER FAQ: Avg 8mo for peaks (max 12mo since 1980). 2020: 4mo lag. RESOLVES YES IF NBER CALLS "REC IN 2025" BY 12/31/25. Q4 data Jan 2026 -plenty of time. JPM / Reuters: 40-45% odds. Your 95c NO = bag if tariffs tank Q4.
lol, it doesn't surprise me your pnl is negative. 2 months remaining.... data is positive... i don't understand why you are so stupid to lose 5c when you could make 5c for free.
You think 2 months of data = immunity from NBER? Ask 2001 how that went. Enjoy your "free 5c" donation I'll send flowers when Q4 jobs miss
UBS WARNS: RECESSION PROBABILITY NOW AT A STAGGERING 93%
lol... why you want to lose money i don't understand
Famous last words
learn what recession means and then trade, loser.
6 reports within last 24h of "theyre about to hit recession"
this was a easy win lmao