This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025: 1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025). 2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current) Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025. The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.
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imagine buying yes on this
Is this not considered inflation now? Then how would it be considered inflation?
What monkey wrote the resolution for this? 5% inflation is arbitrary if inflation exceeds GDP growth. Typical nonsense resolution on this site.
Likely for yes, tariffs, public sector cuts, capital flight.
Cautionary tale https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-china-in-april/will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-china-in-april?tid=1744647406434