PoliticsMarkets
US strike on Colombia by...?
December 3133%
January 31<1%
March 31<1%
$2,094,228 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31$1M Vol.33%
11%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This includes if Colombian government allows U.S to strike on Colombian soil according to military joint operations against guerrillas?
Yes
All the Somalia strikes are in cooperation with local government.
if you think striking Colombia is the same as striking Venezuela..
De hecho es mas fácil
quieren ganar apuesten por el no, petro saldra amarrado pero sera por el proximo gobierno que sera pro eeuu no hay ataque de eeuu a colombia todo sera por el voto politico,
Colombia is a democratic country, Venezuela was not. A drug boat does not count. Yes odds will keep going down....
Peace, no crazy war - Maduro
I don’t know anything im just a retarded liquidity provider
Thanks bro
your profit disagrees
thanks for the liquidity bro, I appreciate it
provide us a car then
hes been talking about land strikes on cartels for so long and the ELN in venezuela is an obvious target
USA and Colombia will do it together
I agree, it's the only way and it benefits both sides. Also, it doesn't backfire in an election year.
[link removed]
trump says land strikes are coming soon, the drug boats mostly come from colombia and colombia is the epicenter of cocaine trafficking, so i would say this is unlikely but undervalued right now
u have no idea mate
lol
yeah, this is not happening.
lots of drugs are coming from colombia
I'm not going to make the same mistake of betting that there won't be an attack in Colombia like I did with Venezuela. It's obvious they'll kill two birds with one stone and go after Petro now, but first they'll attack the ELN, and Petro will defend them and take the bait.
they are
In not too much time there are elections there. I think that they will wait till then.
I didn't expect that call from Petro to Trump. There won't be an attack, but watch out, Trump might arrest Petro when he travels to the US. Save this comment; let's wait for the date of that meeting.
In this market definitely those buying yes are idiots. Petro's period is already ended, thus, believe it or not, currently there's 0 proof unlike Maduro, that he actually deals with drugs and narcotics, Petro is just a man who likes to yell and look for fights. A nice return of investment currently
cartels are his obejctive i think
he said he will bomb cocaine farms, pay attention
Yeah, not gonna happen, unlike Venezuela, Colombia is actually the biggest US ally in South America. Going thru all of that just to bomb farms and taking into account that president Petro is going out soon, I think they will just hold back and push an agenda to support a Trump-aligned candidate. You're just wasting money here.
President Trump has repeatedly accused Petro of being a "sick man" involved in "cocaine mills and factories," framing Colombia as a drug hub similar to Venezuela. These statements echo the rhetoric used against Maduro pre-capture. Colombia was designated a "major drug transit or illicit drug producing country" failing its responsibilities in September 2025. Speculation from analysts and X discussions suggests potential investigations into Petro's campaign financing, ties to Venezuelan cartels (e.g., Cartel of the Suns), and increased cocaine output under his administration. Maduro's ongoing trial could yield testimony implicating Petro, accelerating charges. Probability Assessment: Moderate to high (50-70%). Sanctions often precede indictments in narcoterrorism cases, as seen with Maduro. Trump's aggressive anti-drug stance and personal feud with Petro make it plausible, especially if intelligence from Maduro or Colombian defectors provides evidence.
Your AI slop bores me.
Just came here to say: Now Petro is set to Meet Trump and he had a good opinion on him. Making this market even more stupider
What are you talking about? Petro is sanctioned for drug trafficking lol. And they would strike cartels, not Petro.
But even more then...
Trump cannot bomb Colombia.
He can absolutely target drug routes in there. Legally of course not but that doesnt seem to matter
He cannot
Just now Trump: "Colombia is very sick too. Ran by a sick man. Who likes making cocaine and selling it to USA. But he's not going to be doing it very long". Reporter: "So there will be an operation on Colombia"? Trump: "Sounds good to me"
From: "President Trump Gaggles with Press on Air Force One, Jan. 4, 2026"
why are you no then
So many surface retards don't know a damn think about politics. LOL