PoliticsMarkets
US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3110%
January 31<1%
March 31<1%
$3,397,780 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31$669K Vol.10%
2%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Soon
Does striking cartels count?
should as long as its on mexican soil
when will this market resolve
Thank you for playing
someone to resole this
I haven`t given my money
This will for sure happen this year. Trump made it clear.
theres no way this is happening hahhaha
President Trump in Florida: "The epicenter of cartel violence is Mexico. The Mexican cartels are fueling and orchestrating much of the bloodshed and chaos in this hemisphere, and the United States government will do whatever is necessary to defend our national security."
[link removed]
We will send missiles right into their living room. - Trump on the cartels just now
Blah, blah, blah. We keep waiting.
Unlikely
mexico and cuba is next until this month
lol keep buying your 1 cts
Ww3 Side quests: squash/strike all the bad ppl in South America before they get thru the border that means Mexico is the last stop
Why is my withdrawal blocked for review !?
Trump already in Mexico. Total invasion. We are now State 52. Keep buying !!!
We can see your position...
I expected to see a 100% on yes given that it is suspected the involvement of the US army on taking down CJNG cartel's leader 🤔
You should probably buy then.
waiitt
Nope, I was just curiois
Its for a airstrike not just us army
Must've been a Mexican Cartel Party Balloon. Such an egregious aggressive act cannot go unpunished! Trump will strike in retaliation within the week.
Now, due to the DHS shutdown, Mexican cartels will be able to fly even more party balloons with impunity. Democrats hate their country!
NOTAM was caused by a party balloon, according to CBS news. This is turning into one of the best media stories of 2026.
NOTAM was caused by a swarm of Mexican cartel drones entering US airspace (possibly to smuggle drugs). The US will retaliate in Mexican territory as Mexico is proven unable to prevent cartel operations and guarantee US citizen security.
Watch this story develop today. Buy low.
I just landed in El Paso and there are dozens of Blackhawks just sitting here on the tarmac. I counted at least 500 men in all-black with Proud Boys logos marching in goose step back and forth across the taxiway. I went up to one and asked him what he was doing there, and he said "Making America Great Again".
Return flight from Little Saint James?