This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.
rip
this is actually absurd. they are definitely just playing with words
"However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify."
If this is not a yes it’s rigged they are playing with words
Its going no bro.
UMA help
ok there's a big discrepancy here. why is this market: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-before-july?tid=1751040242077 a YES and the one I'm in isn't sure that's it's a YES. quite absurd to be honest...
Exactly. I feel line backend stuff.
we looking for "mutually agreed halt in military engagement"
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
this market asks the same question but has total oposite stakes... crazy...: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israel-conflict-ends-before-july/iran-x-israel-conflict-ends-before-july?tid=1750970029964
How is this possible hahaha
israel and US are the same bro
its obviously a yes
Obviously. But wtf is going on
So how does it look boys?
This market is a shame for this platform !
why?
Cellphone-only users don't read the rules.
is absolutely a yes
If anyone wants me to dispute, you can tip me (I miss 25$ to open a dispute)
WTF ? I will dispute the result because there was a ceasefire
1. Did you read the rules? 2. Are you using this site exclusively via cellphone by any chance?
this market is a joke, air transit reopened for civilian airplames, the usa and iran both declared their intention of stopping the hostility and still its gonna resolve on no ceasefire?? s*it like will mine the crdibility of the platform
there is no easy free money. you think you can just 10x your money like that? you think if it was that easy the whales wouldnt be doing it? but all the whales are on no. they understand UMA and can rig vague resolves like this.
We're concerned with what the truth is, not market manipulation
i thought it was about the truth
Isn't a cease fire on the table already?
This market is almost decided. The US says the war is over, all the media confirms it. I think that's enough, not necessarily confirmation from Iran. There will be no attacks. What's up with this market? https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-before-july/trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-before-july
Agreed, what value is the predictive power of polymarket if this doesn't resolve as yes?
This market is a joke
Sky news - US will have talks with Iran next week - [link removed]
There was no official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed agreement. But please buy some more "Yes", so we can get No cheaper before July.
Read the first two paragraphs carefully. I'm certain the current situation meets the criteria for yes
It is very strange that exactly the same market Israel x Iran decided as YES, and here it is completely the opposite. But in essence it is the same. If Israel and Iran ceased fire, then the US and Iran have certainly done so. Within the framework of Polymarket logic, it should be decided as YES
there is no logic only whale manipulation
This needs to be resolved asap