This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on between June 18 and June 20, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the talks must involve official representatives of both governments and focus primarily on nuclear issues, such as uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, IAEA inspections, or the JCPOA. Talks may be direct or mediated, and may occur in person or virtually. Only the actual resumption of talks will count; announcements that talks have been scheduled to resume will not alone qualify. Unofficial backchannel communications, general diplomatic meetings not centered on nuclear issues, or one-sided public proposals will not qualify. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Our negotiations with European countries in Geneva today are limited to the nuclear issue and regional issues," - Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister.
easy money
no American
I have found a value bet Will the US strike the Fordow nuclear facility before July For me it should be sixty NO instead of forty My opinion is NO as many factors reduce the chance of this happening see the rules the attack must penetrate and not be neutralized Technical Limitations Fordow is underground protected by concrete and rock built to resist drones and conventional bombs Only a bunkerbuster bomb like GBU fifty seven MOP could destroy it These bombs are rare risky and their failure would hurt Trump politically He is unlikely to use them unless under extreme pressure Political and Geopolitical Context Many Republicans MAGA and Congress members want to avoid another war Trump prefers to avoid a long conflict or new fronts with Russia and China Russia and others warn of major escalation and nuclear risk US intel says Iran is not actively making nuclear weapons so justification is weak