US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

look at the market rules closely: "agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the us and iran on a lasting basis... will not qualify." now compare that to article 8 of the 14-point draft leaked across iranian media (asr iran 1169929). article 8 literally mandates a "60-day negotiation phase to reach a final agreement." a 60-day window to negotiate a future deal is the textbook definition of an "explicitly temporary framework." it completely lacks a definitive agreement to end hostilities on a "lasting basis" right now. under the platform's own exact rules, this draft is disqualified from a YES resolution. UMA voters will look at this exact text and resolve the market as NO. lock it in.

gluck buddy

Although the Iranian Foreign Minister mentioned that the MOU includes ending the war on all fronts, the language is ambiguous and does not explicitly state a permanent end to military hostilities. Under Polymarket's rules, this distinction is critical. Without a clear and permanent cessation of military conflict, it does not qualify as a 'Permanent Peace Deal'

According to the rules, for an agreement ending military hostilities to qualify as YES, it must be a final and permanent end to hostilities. If the agreement is explicitly temporary, or does not clearly state a permanent cessation of military conflict, it does NOT qualify as a permanent peace deal. Please read the resolution criteria carefully.

yeah rules matter and must be permanent peace deal by both sides

They just need to announce an agreement that military hostilities will permanently end at some point for this market to go Yes. The rules are not as strict as you might think.

the problem is if the mou mentions anything about “end military hostilities” uma can tweak this into a yes. look what they did with the strategy market. we all understand the difference between mou and permanent peace. thing is this platform cannot be trusted.

Is the Lebanon front also permanently over? Has the US promised to permanently abandon military action if subsequent negotiations fail?

Read the rules again. It even mentions "multi-point agreement" as an example. Don't blame UMA all the time.

I would bet No because ☪️ can never be trusted, but this can resolve as Yes due some bs pressure on uma

Did you really believe in permanent peace ?

Just saying there is going to be a big fight over whether this satisfy the rules of this market, and its going to start with a massive spike in yes price and someone on the NO side disputing it.

all UMA holders are on Y

How can you tell? Is it just that simple? The UMA holders b us on the side they want it to be and just make that happen? That’s crazy.

So what happens when they sign, YES immediately spikes as people panic sell/ FOMO buy yes, and then someone tries to resolve the market? It’s going to be a shit show. I guarantee a dispute coming on this one, hopefully it works in the Nochuds favor but still.

This happened not long ago on the ceasefire market, it was pure bullshit but the system is now established, what you said is what will happen, hopefully no holders don’t get shafted this time

I mean isn’t that the system working as intended? The way I read the rules the decision was the correct one, and the spike in yes means a great way to get better prices on No. Obviously it depends on the NO resolving in your favor, but still. I think the rules are clear enough that at adjudication a resolve at signing will get bounced if the language doesn’t make the case.

Don't worry NO players. The last point of the MOU explicitly says that it's still not a permanent peace deal. Take a look: "Final negotiations will not begin until half of the frozen Iranian funds have been released, oil sanctions against Iran have been suspended, and the naval blockade has been lifted. The final agreement will be limited exclusively to issues concerning the fate of enriched material and enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and the program for rebuilding the Iranian economy. Discussions regarding Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda."

All that ignoring that it's a draft of a memorandum not a peace deal so PLEASE UMA have mercy for once😂

Saddly, this market will be about money, not about facts. This will get ugly as many others have.

Tengo una posición al 15 de junio todo pasará después del 15??

Give it three more days. june 15 YES is going to zero, and maybe yes hloder will finally come back to reality.😂

Fact: There are no real pictures of the Holocaust.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee retweets a AI generated picture of the Holocaust saying "This is why Jews say Never Again."

JD Vance: This deal has the potential to remake the region and lead to lasting peace.

The Memorandum of Understanding is by nature temporary, as it just sets the framework for negotiations.

I guess we'll see. You never know with polymarket bullshit

true, just be careful about BS Polymarket resolutions. Be ready to defend your position in the UMA dispute-threads channel if anyone disputes the resolution

I think there is a deal that they like that Trump is ready to agree to and they just want to move fast before he changes his mind!

For the first time i think Iran isn't looking to delay this!

Yesssss

Happy Russia day everybody!

This will never result as yes. Now I know how people make money here. It's so simple.

Can we have peace and I win moneys? Win - win situation

Yes, sure. But not soon. The full process of signing a PERMANENT peace deal is not so easy to resolve in couple of days like they say

free money easy no all will be no lmao