GeopoliticsMarkets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 3180%
October 3173%
August 3164%
July 3155%
$300,977,797 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31$10M Vol.80%
4%
October 31$402K Vol.73%
3%
August 31$1M Vol.RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The U.S. Response: Just hours after those statements, U.S. forces shot down multiple Iranian one-way attack drones heading toward the Strait because they posed a threat to commercial traffic. The U.S. is signaling that its rules of engagement remain fully active until a ceasefire is officially in effect.
Right after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declared on state TV that "Iran is the winner of the war," the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) navy began firing warning shots near Qeshm Island and Sirik port at vessels attempting to cross without permission. Araqchi explicitly stated, "Our sword will always hang over the Strait of Hormuz." Tehran wants to prove it dictates the terms of the shipping lane, deal or no deal.
Well said
washtrading
Nice feeling.
airdrop
Full of surprises.
farming
So relaxing.
people will lose money because they don't understand the rules. If the MoU says that the war has ended, this bet will resolve as yes and if you don't understand this then you shouldn't be here
A document that ends a war is called a treaty. An MoU will not say that the war has ended. It will outline terms for a treaty later. These diplomats are not idiots.
the war is not gonna end iran and usa still has to decide on othe issues such as uranium MoU is only for ceasefire
Signing a PERMANENT deal on a SUNDAY and on top of that REMOTELY for a 30-40yr long conflict ? Sounds realistic. Market heavily mispriced.
Signing a PERMANENT deal on a SUNDAY and on top of that REMOTELY for decades of conflicts ? Sounds realistic. Market heavily mispriced.
I won't be surprised if the sons of Zion screw up the deal with a falseflag
permanent peace is not equals to ceasefire extension
Im ready for peace
Deal will be sign this Sunday...
Is a win-win for both part... Time to move on and focus on G7 & QE
Did you read the MOU and the market rules?
you gonna lose that 6k on june 15
This is absolutely fantastic
Exactly right
Really nice moment.
Highly recommend
The war won’t end in Monday.
should be 'on Monday' not 'in Monday'
At Monday
SIGN THE DEAL MOJTABA
bro keep saying since may 31 market
uma holders on yes we safu !
Nonsense :)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31 · Yes
Amount
$
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