GeopoliticsMarkets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 3177%
October 3173%
August 3163%
July 3153%
$299,649,975 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31$10M Vol.77%
1%
October 31$395K Vol.73%
2%
August 31$1M Vol.RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Did you really believe in permanent peace ?
Just saying there is going to be a big fight over whether this satisfy the rules of this market, and its going to start with a massive spike in yes price and someone on the NO side disputing it.
all UMA holders are on Y
How can you tell? Is it just that simple? The UMA holders b us on the side they want it to be and just make that happen? That’s crazy.
So what happens when they sign, YES immediately spikes as people panic sell/ FOMO buy yes, and then someone tries to resolve the market? It’s going to be a shit show. I guarantee a dispute coming on this one, hopefully it works in the Nochuds favor but still.
This happened not long ago on the ceasefire market, it was pure bullshit but the system is now established, what you said is what will happen, hopefully no holders don’t get shafted this time
I mean isn’t that the system working as intended? The way I read the rules the decision was the correct one, and the spike in yes means a great way to get better prices on No. Obviously it depends on the NO resolving in your favor, but still. I think the rules are clear enough that at adjudication a resolve at signing will get bounced if the language doesn’t make the case.
Don't worry NO players. The last point of the MOU explicitly says that it's still not a permanent peace deal. Take a look: "Final negotiations will not begin until half of the frozen Iranian funds have been released, oil sanctions against Iran have been suspended, and the naval blockade has been lifted. The final agreement will be limited exclusively to issues concerning the fate of enriched material and enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and the program for rebuilding the Iranian economy. Discussions regarding Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda."
All that ignoring that it's a draft of a memorandum not a peace deal so PLEASE UMA have mercy for once😂
Saddly, this market will be about money, not about facts. This will get ugly as many others have.
Tengo una posición al 15 de junio todo pasará después del 15??
Give it three more days. june 15 YES is going to zero, and maybe yes hloder will finally come back to reality.😂
Fact: There are no real pictures of the Holocaust.
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee retweets a AI generated picture of the Holocaust saying "This is why Jews say Never Again."
JD Vance: This deal has the potential to remake the region and lead to lasting peace.
The Memorandum of Understanding is by nature temporary, as it just sets the framework for negotiations.
I guess we'll see. You never know with polymarket bullshit
true, just be careful about BS Polymarket resolutions. Be ready to defend your position in the UMA dispute-threads channel if anyone disputes the resolution
I think there is a deal that they like that Trump is ready to agree to and they just want to move fast before he changes his mind!
For the first time i think Iran isn't looking to delay this!
Yesssss
Happy Russia day everybody!
This will never result as yes. Now I know how people make money here. It's so simple.
Can we have peace and I win moneys? Win - win situation
Yes, sure. But not soon. The full process of signing a PERMANENT peace deal is not so easy to resolve in couple of days like they say
free money easy no all will be no lmao
checking in — looks like a close one
And holy projection, all Israel and US accuse others of is stuff they doing themselves, its really quite remarkable how embarrassing it is to listen to their rhetoric, its cringe and horrible at the same time!
Only thing you can trust bout Israelis is you cant trust them!
Araghchi: The signing of the memorandum of understanding will be conducted digitally and remotely after passing the final stages of negotiations, which will be announced and may take place in the coming days.
😂😂😂😂🤣🤣
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31 · Yes
Amount
$
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