GeopoliticsMarkets
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
June 302%
December 31<1%
February 4<1%
$599,753 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30$42K Vol.2%
2%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability. An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify. Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control. The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Rubio: I don't have any announcement on New START. Obviously, the President's been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it's impossible to do something that doesn't include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile. no china = no deal …
START treaties have been extended or re-signed for 50 years; this time, stupid Trump simply dragged things out for a few weeks or months. Those who bought "no" at such a high price were very wrong.
Why should the "no" side be "very wrong"? Until a few weeks ago, you claimed that the treaty would be extended, and you were completely wrong. The article even says that no agreement could be reached. Perhaps you should listen again to Trump's past interviews, in which he always said that an extension would only be possible with the inclusion of China.
With that level of conviction one would think you should own some yes shares before calling out the other side? Please fill some more of my no position. But you are ignoring the fact that the treaty has been dead since the Rus/Ukr war and that the US has no benefit of signing it. No less, since the orange buffoon took office the world order has drastically changed, to the point where "last 50 years" is irrelevant.
I sold at the highest point because liquidity would still come here.
I see, nice profit there. Whats your Yes target price for re-entry? Looking forward to the future fill
The US and Russia are negotiating an extension of the New START agreement - AXIOS
its a no by feb 4
The comment below is complete bullshit. Trump said he would let the treaty expire. Quote: "When it expires, it expires."
Dont ruin his game. Porx always buys yes, comes with an undocumented claim, and then sells out. So trade against it instead.
I never lie, Trump actually said he wants to make a new deal, what's the problem?
Guess you are right, but would've been better if you sold 😅
Donald Trump has announced his readiness to conclude a new nuclear arms control treaty with Russia.
This is the shittiest market ever
Trump's new peace plan's 17th point references continuation of the New START Treaty that would count for resolution of this market. Since the market for ceasefire in Ukraine this year is at 15%, it seems that this market is severely underrated
We dont want nukes in golden age!
N word?
Highly undervalued
Putin is very insistent on pushing this through to Trump and will definitely propose announcing the extension of the New START Treaty following the Budapest meeting.
When will this meeting be?
This will definitely be discussed in today's conversation.
@iamhereforrewards fill me pappy 🥵
why is the graph at 11.5% but makes me buy at a market price of 20?
Thanks
Russian Presidential Special Representative Kirill Dmitriev suggested that the likelihood of the US agreeing to Putin's New START proposal is quite high given Trump's recent statements.
Trump responded to a TASS question by saying that Putin's proposals on the New START Treaty sounded like a good idea.
Peskov: We expect a US response on the START Treaty this week.
President Trump about the New START treaty: “That’s not an agreement you want expiring.”
Just one post from Mr. President, let's go.