This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official defense or security agreement, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that modify, expand, or codify existing U.S.–Saudi defense or security arrangements will qualify if they are announced as individualized mutual agreements. However, broad policy directives or general strategic statements that are not specific to a distinct U.S.–Saudi deal — such as global or regional defense postures, general strategic visions, or blanket policy shifts not tied to a specific agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia — will not qualify. Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and Saudi Arabia as parties, even if they also involve additional countries, will qualify for resolution. Qualifying agreements include: - A formal U.S.–Saudi defense pact (treaty-style or equivalent) publicly announced. - A bilateral security guarantee or “mutual defense understanding” with clear, finalized commitments. - A renewal or expansion of an existing U.S.–Saudi Defense Cooperation Agreement that adds new binding commitments. - A finalized defense/security cooperation deal involving U.S.–Saudi basing access, joint operations, or missile/air defense integration. - A finalized arms-transfer agreement when explicitly part of a broader U.S.–Saudi security agreement. - A multilateral agreement that includes both the United States and Saudi Arabia as named parties (e.g., U.S.–Saudi–Israel security framework) The following will NOT qualify: - General political statements or strategic declarations that do not constitute a finalized mutual agreement. - Broad regional defense doctrines or global policy frameworks that do not specify a distinct U.S.–Saudi agreement. - Unilateral statements by either the U.S. or Saudi Arabia announcing intent without confirmation of mutual agreement. - Non-binding memoranda of understanding, exploratory frameworks, or “agreements in principle” without finalized terms. - Routine or standalone arms sales (e.g., approval of Patriot missiles or F-15 parts) not tied to a named security agreement. - Negotiations, drafts, leaks, or indications of progress toward a deal that is not finalized and publicly announced. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming that a defense or security agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia has been reached.
we did it joe
15s - dont u dare
dont do it
"Good morning, and in case I don't see ya, good afternoon, good evening, and good night!"
at least cancel buy orders you will be robbed on 5 minutes
ampula, bro you don’t know what you doing, brother. you got 5 min to sale this shit
Cut your losses is my pro tip
What does “We have reached agreement” means
Means this: Highlights included President Trump’s announcement that Saudi Arabia is now designated a major non-NATO ally,
Car buyout and propose, please. There is nothing to discuss
thank you 😊
How is the at 80% is this going to be like the F-35 deal, lol
Because they signed a deal, as official announced by the white house, check the site
Also this “ The President secured agreements reinforcing America’s role as a regional security enabler, enhancing our U.S. military partnerships to better allow partners to deter and defeat threats.”
Yes, it should be 99%, but it's just interesting to see it at 80%
You might be right, but it still has to be a legally binding agreement, or some sort of strong commitment from each side. The official announcement is not clear about that.
I think it’s time to stop coping.
I mean it doesn’t get more clear than this, the rules have been satisfied, hence the price
It’s also why the other market is obviously resolving no.
Not coping. You might be very right about this, but it's still not clear. If the price is high up on the YES side, it doesn't necessarily mean it's right, check the US govt shutdown market, entire market was wrong.
This might resolve to YES because of this: A finalized defense or security cooperation deal involving US Saudi basing access, joint operations, or missile or air defense integration. What are your thoughts?
SDA was expanded, Agreements that modify, expand, or codify existing... arrangements"
I think we need an official release of the SDA, I think the key's in the SDA. Just because the SDA was expanded, I don't necessarily think it also qualifies to anything unless it's mutually binding. Time will tell of course. If the SDA clearly says it's binding, then yes, this will resolve to YES. At this point, I can't say I'm too sure.
If it's a treaty style pact, bilateral security agreement, expansion of existing SDA with binding commitments. All of that. That would qualify as a YES. I think I'm leaning towards a YES now though.
We don’t, as the rules don’t ask for that.
Hold on if you want, but it’s wasted money.
I think either way for you, you should really sell. Price was sitting at somewhere like 95c, you made good money, so just de-risk. I always try to exit at 82-85c. Me on the other hand, for now, not looking well at all.
Thats costing you a lot of money after taking the risk.
President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed the [link removed] Strategic Defense Agreement (SDA), a historic agreement that strengthens our more than 80-year defense partnership and fortifies deterrence across the Middle East. The SDA is a win for the America First agenda, making it easier for U.S. defense firms to operate in Saudi Arabia, securing new burden-sharing funds from the Saudi Arabia to defray U.S. costs, and affirming that the Kingdom views the United States as its primary strategic partner.
my thesis: nothing ever happens
meow meow
“We have reached agreement” trump
"We've sold F35" 😂😂😂
We can tell where that pnl comes from.
obviously you can't, as you did no research on my pnl
Look who has taken the right side for once
psssh silent Mr non existent bank roll
Flexing -40k, what polymarket does to some people 😂
pssshh silent brokie
Ironic.
I said silence brokie
Get some glasses buddy, call coming from inside the house 😂😂😂
ahhh silence brokie
shhhh silence brokie
Npc.
ok keep barking then brokie
Keep losing
good boy, keep barking brokie
Keep losing brokie
woof woof
Market already dropping, congratulations to all the No holders.
"Bin Salman will likely be seeking security guarantees that Saudi Arabia feels the US has not adequately met" by Aljazeera and "is considering a bilateral security agreement pledging to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of any attack" by Politico
Be careful. This is likely a NO. An F35 sale and a civil nuclear deal do not qualify as a US and Saudi defense or security agreement under the market rules, seems like a market drop is coming, good luck everyone!
sure [link removed]
October 17th😂. Come on man, close your profits as soon as you can.
It IS a NATO style security agreement. I am unable to post the link though. System keeps deleting it.
well if you think they will sell them military jets and civil nuclear tech without a framework defense agreement, you are the one who needs luck, notlucky
😂😂😂 Love this market…
cant wait for an agreement to be made and pass as yes here and no on the other market
Almost as if they have different rules
very bad rules here - cooking the popcorn for the disputes in a few days
Biden was only going to let this happen if they agreed to normalize with Israel if they sign this agreement what incentive do they have to normalize ? Food for thoufht
but the criteria to qualify as yes are way to broad