PoliticsMarkets
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro75%
Delcy Rodríguez14%
María Corina Machado4%
Jorge Rodríguez1%
$90,768,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro$2M Vol.75%
3%
Delcy Rodríguez$2M Vol.14%
1%
María Corina Machado$1M Vol.4%
Jorge Rodríguez$1M Vol.1%
No Head of State$1M Vol.1%
Edmundo González$1M Vol.1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón$2M Vol.<1%
Dinorah Figuera$2M Vol.<1%
Vladimir Padrino López$696K Vol.<1%
Evan Pettus$5M Vol.<1%
Dan Caine$4M Vol.<1%
Donald Trump$950K Vol.<1%
Marco Rubio$1M Vol.<1%
Pete Hegseth$9M Vol.<1%
Frank Donovan$25M Vol.<1%
Richard Grenell$32M Vol.<1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
This is a scam obviously
Why??
buy Delcy Rodriguez strong
NO is the only side that makes sense to me here. the market is acting like the UN file is frozen forever, but it’s not. maduro is already under the U.S. case, and now Saab gets extradited too. if Saab talks or strengthens the case, the odds of maduro getting legally cooked go way higher. NO is just betting reality catches up to the paperwork before end of 2026. [link removed]
I don't believe the UN will change this unless the Venezuelan government asks them to. As far as I know, there is nothing that prohibits Maduro from officially being the President of Venezuela, even if he is elsewhere, even in a foreign jail.
Let them cook
The incumbent advantage is overstated in this market
Im in venezuela right now, everyone thinks there will be elections, but then can occur next year only FYI
Today Maria Corina talks about elections in 12 months. That means she thinks de Supreme Court will change the Maduro’s status in Venezuela. After 03/06 (180 days after the temporary absence) the absolute absence is declared. So… good bye Maduro
“…and official government sources and statements continue to identify him as the President of Venezuela. “ :) do not forget about 03/06/2026
While everyone was chasing liquidity rewards yesterday, Ken was busy dumping 20% of his shares :). Fact is, the 'temporary absence' legal window expires in Venezuela on 06/03/2026. The ongoing judicial reform targets the Supreme Court (TSJ), which handles Maduro’s status. We're seeing a repeat of the legal maneuvers used when Chávez died.
Keep in mind: Maduro is on trial in the U.S., trying to declare himself a prisoner of war while simultaneously claiming the presidency. U.S. prosecutors have no use for a Maduro who is still legally president. That makes 06/03/2026 the most vital date to watch the Plenary Chamber of the new court :)
Yeah, "No" is free money right now. We're still in April, come on... The crooked UN has a lot of time to realize he's not in charge
Or “official government sources and statements” :) sounds good
By official government sources they mean Venezuelan Government, dumfuq and same with the UN they put there whatever the Government of Venezuela tells them to do.
Yep. But you have to take into account that Maduro is facing impeachment proceedings, and as part of his defense, he declared himself president. That hinders the trial in the US. Therefore, after June 3rd (the date on which the temporary absence legally ends in Venezuela), it's very likely that a new legal figure will emerge as Delcy's president :).
crooked UN? really? Is Trump crooked or honest then? Strange judgement here
Good time to buy no Maduro :)
Whoever support Delcy deserves lost all that money :)
exactly only if u support maduro u deserve to win
What kind of nonsense are you writing?)
;)
Trip to profit
Why yes?
The truth: the market can decide whatever it want with the new rules
The rules were changed?
Why is maduro so high?
Why is maduro so low?
REALLY
Maduro has been captured by Delta Force
I just check the news by looking at prediction markets like Poly, as most media outlets report nonsense.
This market is rigged and is a scam. I'm a Venezuelan and the official president, by supreme court ruling is Delcy Rodriguez.
can you please send this proposal to UN?
This is absurd! Plain old scam…
PM clearly inciting physical violence against Nicolas Maduro with this clarification, not good optics
Are you gonna send one of your little drone toys yall people use to kill civilians to Maduro's jail or what?