This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Maduro out - US x Venezuela military engagement Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Maduro+Parlay.pdf
At this point we need "Nothing Ever Happens: Venezuela Edition" market.
SEE MY TRACK RECORD AND FOLLOW ME! This market's YES resolution requires a simultaneous dual event: Maduro's removal AND kinetic US military engagement before year-end (29 days remaining). Our analysis segments the risk: a low-intensity skirmish ($P(\text{Engagement}) \approx 8\%$) has a near-zero chance of immediate regime change, while a full-scale invasion (the only high-success scenario) is logistically impossible within this tight timeframe. $P(\text{YES})$ is estimated below 4%. At a $0.86$ entry point for NO, the market is mispricing the probability of two highly conditional geopolitical events failing to align in December.
They could take out Maduro with a linited strike.. Unlikely, but that's the only plausible scenario this would happen
yes
This market's YES resolution requires a simultaneous dual event: Maduro's removal AND kinetic US military engagement before year-end (29 days remaining). Our analysis segments the risk: a low-intensity skirmish ($P(\text{Engagement}) \approx 8\%$) has a near-zero chance of immediate regime change, while a full-scale invasion (the only high-success scenario) is logistically impossible within this tight timeframe. $P(\text{YES})$ is estimated below 4%. At a $0.86$ entry point for NO, the market is mispricing the probability of two highly conditional geopolitical events failing to align in December.
polymarket just doing anything atp